Neither the Administration of Joe Biden nor that of Donald Trump are willing to grant Ukraine as a security guaranteealthough there are alternatives on the table. The position of the United States is key due to its weight in the Atlantic Alliance and it is a no that kyiv has to learn to live with, at least in the immediate time.
president of the Russian policy area at the RAND corporation, an analyst at reference in the world of security and defense, in an analysis in Foreign Affairs.
The political scientist pointed out that Ukraine’s entry into NATO would require the approval of the 32 member statesa process that could take months, even in the best of cases, and would depend on kyiv implements numerous non-war reforms in progress.
Instead, the article suggests alternative approaches to protect Ukraine. Throughout history, the United States has offered bilateral security commitments to allies and partners in post-conflict situationsand to Israel after the Yom Kippur War of 1973.
“These approaches, which have encouraged long periods of relative stability and peace, could serve as models for future negotiations with Ukraine,” writes Charap.
Another form of security guarantee could come from the possible accession of Ukraine to the EU. Under the EU mutual assistance provisions, Member States are obliged to provide aid and support to a country victim of armed aggressionusing all available means.
Charap stressed the importance of arming Ukraine to ensure lasting peace. “If kyiv trusts its security guarantees, will be able to focus on economic recovery and democracy instead of becoming a fortress state,” he wrote.
Furthermore, Charap highlighted the need for Russian aggression to have sustained consequences to deter future invasions. The West could maintain certain and export controls as long-term measures, or until Russia withdraw completely from Ukraine.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin can declare victory once active combat ends, Charap maintains that the world must not perceive that Russia has escaped responsibility for its actions.
In November, citing his own sources, he reported that Ukraine prioritizes security guarantees about the recovery of territories occupied by Russiadespite public denials of territorial concessions.
However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, in a statement on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, reiterated its , calling the memorandum a “bitter lesson” for the country.
