After a year marked by an increase in the cost of living, 2025 will bring new challenges for the Portuguese, with increases already confirmed in several products and services. Find out which essential items will become more expensive, those that should maintain their prices and those that could become cheaper, with the help of this article.
Dairy products: stable prices, but with possible occasional increases
In 2024, the price of dairy products in Portugal remained stable, although the increase in VAT to 6% caused adjustments. According to the National Federation of Milk Producers Cooperatives (Fenalac), this stability helped to guarantee predictability in a sector affected by high production costs.
Idalino Leão, president of Fenalac, highlighted that “2024 was the first year of realignment after a period of structural changes in food prices”, due to factors such as energy, fertilizers and cereals. However, he reinforced that it is essential to ensure fair prices for producers, to avoid abandoning the activity. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also pointed to a 20.1% increase in the global dairy price index in November 2024, due to high demand and supply shortages in Western Europe.
For 2025, stability in consumer prices is expected, especially for essential goods, but with possible increases related to the increase in the minimum wage and energy costs. “Without predictability and stability, the abandonment of activity will increase, compromising the country’s food sovereignty”, warned Idalino Leão.
Bread: expected increase
The price of bread is expected to rise in 2025, driven by the increase in production costs and the minimum wage, which will be 870 euros, as reported by . Deborah Barbosa, president of the Bakery Commerce and Industry Association (ACIP), explained that “the price of bread should continue to rise due to energy, transport and raw material costs”.
Although consumers adjust purchases to smaller quantities due to the loss of purchasing power, demand for artisanal and quality products remains high. Despite the expected increase, ACIP highlights that Portugal maintains low prices compared to other European Union countries.
Olive oil: prices may fall
After two years of shortages and record prices, 2025 should bring some drop in the price of olive oil, thanks to the recovery in production. Mariana Matos, general secretary of Casa do Azeite, was optimistic about the stabilization of the market and the increase in consumption, although she warned about price volatility: “The general trend will be for prices to fall at origin, but it will depend on factors such as global consumption and estimates of the next harvest.”
Fruits and vegetables: uncertain prices
Fruit and vegetable prices depend on factors such as the economic situation and production chains. Gonçalo Lobo Xavier, general director of the Portuguese Association of Distribution Companies (APED), highlighted that “prices are too dependent on the economic situation and possible disruptions in supply chains”. To contain increases, the proper functioning of the Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan (PEPAC) will be essential.
Meat and eggs: increases of up to 10%
Meat prices in Portugal are expected to increase between 5% and 10% in 2025, due to production costs such as feed and energy. Graça Mariano, director of the Portuguese Meat Industry Association (APIC), explained: “Rising energy, feed and transport costs are driving this trend.”
Eggs should follow the same trajectory, with expected increases of around 5% to 10%, due to weather conditions and increased production costs.
Coffee: significant rise
The price of coffee will increase in 2025, with a cup in cafes and bakeries costing up to 30 cents more. The increase reflects the rise in grain prices on the international market, aggravated by weather phenomena in Brazil and Vietnam. According to ProVar, a national restaurant association, the average price of a portion can go from R$1.20 to R$1.50 in some establishments. Daniel Serra, president of ProVar, said that “many cafes and pastry shops, which until now have resisted raising prices due to competition, will be forced to do so.”
Despite expected increases in essential goods and other services, there are signs of stability in some sectors. However, consumers must continue to pay attention to their choices, adjusting their consumption habits to changes in the market.
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