Everything seems to point to Russia, but Russia neither confirms nor denies possible involvement in the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane. Reuters reported that the plane was shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft defense system, the US aligns with the thesis the airline says there was “physical and technical interference from abroad”, experts see signs of “advice” and something worse: “It wasn’t a flock of birds, that’s for sure.” At least 38 people died
A commercial plane flying over airspace previously frequented by Ukrainian drones should have been properly identified and was not. And here is possible failure number one. This same airspace should have been closed even before the incident and it was not. And here is possible failure number two. Blaming birds for the crash of a commercial plane when there are images of perforations – this is failure number three. The “misfortune”, which is still unknown whether it was human or technical, came from Moscow’s anti-aircraft defense system, experts say, which gives strength to the thesis of Russian “hands” in the downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane.
Lieutenant General Marco Serronha considers that the most plausible is that there was a “lack of control” on the part of the Russian air defense in the incident involving the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190. But wouldn’t that be a reason for the aircraft to fall apart in the air? Yes and no. There are still many doubts, mainly about the fault of the Russians, but one thing is certain, says MArco Serronha: “Something very strange happened here – and it’s not a flock of birds, that’s for sure”. Those from the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 have already been recovered, but before anyone can even know what they can prove, this thesis that it was the birds that caused the commercial plane to crash began to lose strength a few hours after the accident, when the The United States put on the table the hypothesis that the plane had been shot down by Russians. And he himself says he saw images of holes in the plane that would never have been caused by birds.
The Americans assert that there is evidence that a Russian system hit the target before it was struck and that this happened due to a mistake in identity, largely due to what they say is the result of poorly trained Russian units that negligently fire at the target. of drones across Ukraine.
This morning, an Embraer 190 aircraft of an Azerbaijani airline, flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defense system. However, admitting this is inconvenient for everyone, so efforts will be made to cover it up, even the holes in the remaining parts of the…
— Andriy Kovalenko (@AndriKovalenko)
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Combating Disinformation in Ukraine – part of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council -, and British experts in anti-aircraft defense – cited by – reinforce launched by the United States and . Azerbaijani government sources also confirmed that a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the plane to crash and the AnewZ channel reports that a preliminary investigation concluded that the plane was hit by shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile from the Pantsir-S defense system. from Russia.
“These types of situations can happen, but at that distance and, being a civil aircraft, it seems to me that there was an error by the radar operator – who identified that image as being that of a Ukrainian drone and orders were given to shoot it down”, he states. Major General Isidro Morais de Pereira, adding that “there was a human or technical error”.
If the Russian kill thesis is true, why did the anti-aircraft systems fail?
The website Flightradar24 says that the plane in question was “exposed to GPS interference and spoofing near Grozny” – the plane’s destination city – and that videos of the accident also “indicate possible control problems with the aircraft”.
What we know about Azerbaijan Airlines flight
Aircraft: Embraer ERJ-190
Registration: 4K-AZ65
Age: 11 years
Origin: Baku (GYD)
Destination : Grozny (GRV)
Average flight time: 57 minutesThe aircraft was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.
The altitude was…
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24)
The alleged problems in controlling the Azerbaijan Airlines plane appear to be explained by the possible impact of the missile or its fragments. But if it hit the commercial plane, then something went wrong. And the most certain thing is that it was the identification system.
“Anti-aircraft defense systems work with line of sight, fundamentally linked to radars. When the radar detects a certain device, it could be a drone or plane, there may be identification errors, there may be an error by the radar operator itself, who may erroneously identify a certain aerial target and give orders to be shot down as if it were an enemy aircraft”, explains Major General Isidro Morais de Pereira, who says that “it is not normal for an incident like this to happen – but it can happen”.
Although he argues that there is “a fog over something that will have to be clarified in the long term” – even with regard to the route that the plane took after the alleged collision with the missile -, the commander also points the finger at a possible “failure of the Russian anti-aircraft defense command and control system when identifying targets, but says there is a lack of details to know what this failure consisted of.
The explains, in turn, that “the anti-drone systems that Russia is currently using are susceptible” to errors, and could, therefore, be at the origin of the “lack of control” reported.
The lieutenant general refers to the Pantsir-S1, which has been associated with this case. “It is a missile system that has a version for an anti-drone system”, he states, saying that it is “a system that is mounted on top of a truck, which has a series of tubes, and the action of the radars itself allows the automatic system that chooses targets and missiles are sent out for certain types of targets”. “There may have been some lack of control there”, admits the lieutenant general, despite saying that it is “strange” that Russia did not close the airspace and did not let the plane “land at the nearest airport”, knowing that that would be a critical zone.
“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but did not do so”, believes, head of the Center for Combating Disinformation in Ukraine, part of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, speculating that the Azerbaijani authorities may be trying cover up the real reason behind the crash, including the holes in the plane, as it would be “inconvenient” to blame Russia.
“In that airspace, that type of route is used by civil aircraft. There was advice there on the part of the region’s anti-aircraft weapons garrison”, says Major General Isidro Morais de Pereira, arguing that the airspace should not be open.
Why wasn’t the plane completely destroyed?
Videos of the accident show the plane crashing before crashing. Upon hitting the ground, the plane caught fire, with some passengers escaping from the wreckage soon after. For Tiago André Lopes, a specialist in International Relations, “the idea that it was a Russian surface-to-air missile from the defensive systems” does not explain the fact that, if this theory were confirmed, “it would have led to a total tragedy and not partial.”
So why wasn’t the plane completely destroyed? Now, this is another one of the many unanswered questions. And part of that answer depends on the missile — or missile debris — that hit the plane. “The plane was not completely destroyed and this has an explanation”, explains Isidro Morais de Pereira. At issue is the fact that there are “several types of anti-aircraft weapons”, some in which “the missiles go after heat sources and hit the aircraft engines” and others that “end up exploding when approached, without even needing to touch the aerial target”, as they “launch a set of small cylindrical metallic pieces that hit the plane’s fuselage, enough for the plane to crash”.
On this point, Major General Agostinho Costa says that, if the thesis that the plane was hit by Russian missiles is confirmed, the issue could be the “Stinger-type MPADS missile” which has “one kilo of explosive” and, therefore, This, “eventually may have been the cause of the accident”, especially because, he explains, “the plane did not show visible damage until it landed” – and that is why Agostinho Costa questions the initial theory that the cause was the “local air defense system ”, the Pantsir-S1, as it has “20 kilos of explosive”, enough to make the plane explode in the air in the event of a crash.
However, Major General Isidro Morais de Pereira says that the Pantsir-S1, despite having a large explosive charge, may, in fact, have been the cause of the accident, as it is a drone that “explodes at a distance short.”
Of the 68 passengers on this flight, some survived, as did the Kremlin, which maintains that “”, but has not yet confirmed or rejected any direct involvement in the incident.
If this shooting theory is confirmed, this is the second time in a decade that Russian forces have destroyed a commercial aircraft – before it was MH17, in Ukraine.
