He assesses that the crisis is already comparable to that experienced by Venezuela.
The African country, a former Portuguese colony, has been the scene of opposition protests for two months. The trigger for the demonstrations was the victory in the October presidential election of the government candidate, Daniel Chapo, which is contested by the opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane.
According to a diplomatic source monitoring the situation, there are clear signs of fraud in the declared triumph of Chapo, from Frelimo, the party that governs
The electoral body, dominated by the government, gave him 65% of the votes against 24% for Mondlane, a charismatic evangelical politician who has been mobilizing especially the younger part of the population.
Brazil has so far not clearly recognized Chapo’s victory and has expressed concern about the increase in violence. There is particular fear about a new wave of protests on the day of the new president’s inauguration, scheduled for January 15th.
The comparison with Venezuela, where dictator Nicolás Maduro won an election considered fraudulent by a large part of the international community in July, is due to several factors.
In addition to electoral irregularities, Frelimo has persecuted opponents and repressed protesters with violence, similar to what the Venezuelan party does. Mondlane himself is in exile in an unknown country, from where he continues to encourage his supporters to take to the streets through social media.
Another parallel is the fact that Frelimo is in its origins a Marxist party, with which the PT and the Brazilian left have historical and emotional relations.
At the moment, the company’s strategy is to act behind the scenes, without the attitude of explicit disapproval like that adopted in the case of Venezuela, where President Lula even called for a new election.
The assessment is that there are no material and political conditions at this time to repeat the vote in the African nation.
One possible path is to pressure Chapo and Mondlane into a transitional coalition government, during which institutional reforms would be made to the electoral and political systems. Brazil is willing to help with expertise in these fields.
With historical, cultural and economic ties to Mozambique, Brazil believes it can be an important actor in helping to resolve the crisis in the country of 34 million inhabitants.
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