January 2025 arrives with good news for Portuguese families with real estate credit, especially those whose bank contracts will be reviewed. Just as happened in the previous month, the beginning of the new year will bring a significant reduction in monthly installments, with savings that can exceed R$100.
According to Nuno Rico, economist at , “we have continued declines in all averages across all time frames”. In exclusive statements to , he highlighted: “the news is that we have all maturities below 3%, including the 12-month Euribor, already below 2.5%. There is, however, a slowdown in the pace of the fall, which indicates an expectation of stabilization of Selic values in the coming months.”
To illustrate, consider a real estate loan of R$150,000 over 30 years, with a spread of 1%:
• Euribor 12 months: The monthly installment will fall to 667 euros, 109 euros less (14.04%) compared to the 776 euros paid in the last 12 months. The average rate recorded in December was 2.432%.
• Euribor 6 months: The monthly amount will be R$685, a reduction of R$94 (12.06%) compared to R$779 paid in June. The average rate for December was 2.643%.
• Euribor 3 months: The installment will fall to 713 euros, 52 euros less (6.79%) compared to the 765 euros paid in October. The average rate in December was 2.848%.
Regarding the slowdown in the fall, Nuno Rico explained: “The context changed a little, especially after the American elections. The outlook is for the decline to continue, but not at the pace anticipated two months ago. This is due, on the one hand, to the election of Donald Trump and what it could imply in trade policy, and, on the other, to greater US protectionism, which could harm the European economy, leading the ECB to adopt other measures.”
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