The turbulence in the Brazilian economy is expected to persist until the government signals compliance with the goals established in the fiscal framework, according to Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos.
In an interview with WWCruz analyzed the economic scenario for 2025, highlighting the disparity between the positive results of 2024 and the prospects for next year.
Despite the positive ending of 2024, with economic growth, low unemployment rate and good performance of the financial market, the economist warns of worrying signs on the horizon, mainly in the context of inflation and interest rates.
Inflationary pressures and price dispersion
Cruz highlights that, although the IPCA presented a lower overall number, opening the data reveals worrying trends.
“The dispersion of prices, which represents the number of items that rise simultaneously, increased from 51% in December 2023 to 61% in 2024”, explains the economist. This indicates that Brazilian consumers may feel price increases across a wider range of products and services.
The expert also draws attention to the services sector, known for its resistance to falling prices once the rise begins. According to Cruz, this sector is already showing signs of robustness in terms of price increases throughout the year.
Outlook for 2025: inflation and interest rates in focus
For 2025, Cruz predicts that inflation will “fight to respect the upper limit of the target”. This situation may require the Central Bank to raise interest rates, which, in turn, tends to slow down company investment and expansion.
“When companies reduce the pace of expansion and the search for credit, this has a direct impact on job creation”, warns Cruz.
The economist anticipates that these effects should manifest themselves more clearly throughout 2025, contrasting with the good results observed in the labor market in 2024.
Cruz concludes that overcoming economic turbulence is directly linked to the government’s ability to demonstrate commitment to established fiscal goals.
As long as this signaling does not occur clearly, instability should remain a characteristic of the Brazilian economic scenario.
