The economic scenario formed in recent weeks should herald a more complicated start to the year for small and medium-sized companies (). On the one hand, the prospect of rising interest rates makes the options for raising funds from banks even tighter; Meanwhile, companies that spend in dollars may see their margins tighten as the currency’s value rises.
Faced with a scenario of persistent inflation and challenges from a fiscal point of view, Selic, at 12.25% in its last meeting, with signs of at least two new increases of around 1 percentage point. Following the less optimistic outlook, the dollar soared to close to R$6.20, against the level of R$5.7 in October.
All of this makes for an especially difficult scenario for the group of small and medium-sized companies that operate with tighter margins, import inputs and depend on third-party capital to maintain or expand their businesses.
The interest factor
“Initially, small and medium-sized companies reach a level of production where it is very common to need both a cash flow and a level of debt to be able to expand, which requires raising resources”, says XP derivatives specialist, Matheus Martin. “Hardly a company [desse tipo] can have access to institutional investors, investment funds, that make contributions at the stage of life they are in.”
For Martin, interest rates are part of a tripod of risks that must be observed by companies, along with the exchange rate and the price of inputs.
It turns out that with higher interest rates, companies’ margins are more compromised: that is, the cost of paying debts “eats” part of the percentage that the company manages to profit from its activity.
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In this scenario, even an unusual capitalization for companies of this size through the sale of shares becomes even more difficult. For the investor, it is more worthwhile to invest their money in a conservative product linked to the interest rate.
Another macroeconomic element makes life difficult for minors: the Central Bank’s idea of raising interest rates is to slow down the economy’s growth and reduce inflation, which means that companies will sell fewer products and services.
Search for alternatives
“Medium and large companies suffer from this macroeconomic scenario, but small companies certainly feel it more. The pass-through of costs to this type of customer is immediate. He has very little bargaining power”, says Flip CEO and founder, Raphael Levi.
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Flip specializes in credit with guaranteed receivables for small and medium-sized companies. Levi assesses that the lack of an alternative to large banks ends up increasing the interest paid on loans by this group of companies. Faced with a scenario of greater monetary tightening, these companies are looking for cheaper means of financing.
At Flip itself, the number of potential customers registered in the database organically (that is, who searched for the company on their own) grew 36% from the beginning of the year to December 23, 2024. In comparison to the last three months From 2023 to the same period in 2024, the increase was 58%, to 11.7 thousand.
Martin, from XP, works on the derivatives desk for small and medium-sized companies. These are contracts based on other assets. In the case of the brokerage, in that tripod: dollar, interest and inputs. The idea is to buy products during a period of better prices for the business in search of protection for variations.
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This is the case with the dollar. Given the current rise in the American currency, a company more exposed to the import of goods or services that it receives in Real ends up paying more in these negotiations. The idea would be to enter into derivative contracts with the dollar low and protect yourself when it is high.
In the case of large companies, it is more common to have a sector responsible for risk management. This is not the reality for smaller companies, who often have to deal with macroeconomic changes as they happen.
Martin’s assessment is that risk management is viewed with fear by many companies due to cases of companies that used the tool in search of financial results. An iconic case is that of Sadia, which in 2008 recorded financial losses close to R$2.5 billion with foreign exchange derivative operations.
