The year 2024 will be one of those that the Catalan independence movement will want to bury in oblivion. There were collective and individual defeats and the triumphs were little. On the one hand, in the Parliament after 12 years of a secessionist bloc. Esquerra Republicana and Junts per Catalunya were defeated by the socialists in the Catalan elections in May and, immersed in internal reconstruction processes, they still have on the table the question of how to approach the new political cycle. Their respective leaders, and , won in their respective congresses, but the first will have to deal with the evident internal division that their figure generates, while the former president He will have to do so with the impossibility of serving as head of the opposition. Both hope for an application of the amnesty that embarks on the complex path of resources, an issue that poisons the relationship with the Government of Pedro Sánchez, which needs their votes but which both independence leaders insist that they will not give for free.
ERC and Junts have 14 seats in the Congress of Deputies and those votes are vital for there to be General State Budgets (PGE) and any legislative initiative to go ahead. Here, unlike the Parliament, where both can also numerically give air to a Salvador Illa in a minority (with Puigdemont’s there they have an absolute majority, with the Republicans they also have to add to the commons to prevail), the speech of demands towards Sánchez is identical.
Within ERC, that means real gestures on three fronts. Comply with the debt relief from the Autonomous Liquidity Fund; advance in singular financing (although it is an agreement with the PSC to invest Illa, the court of play is in the Government and the Cortes); and, the Catalan Cercanías trains, to the Generalitat. Relations between socialists and republicans were frozen while waiting for ERC to vote for its new leadership. Two weeks ago, Junqueras won the second round, but it was clear that he must lead a divided party due to his leadership.
Republicans also have to vote on their political and statutory proposals in March. The domestic front will have to be attended to because the municipal elections in two years will be the great litmus test of his recipe to “make ERC great again.” During the campaign for the presidency of the party he made an effort to show a certain equidistance towards the socialists, but to ideologically re-arm the party he will surely have to be clearer. For now, sheltered in the discourse of the demand prior to any new agreement, he hopes to hold out. His victory also now gives the speaker in Congress, Gabriel Rufián, all the room for maneuver.
Together, . Puigdemont states that the Brussels agreement of November 2023, which facilitated Sánchez’s inauguration in exchange for compensation, was forged out of “distrust.” It has never ceased to be in question. In his last appearance from Belgium, the former Catalan president insisted that the time has come to propose “a turning point.” The PSOE insists that the legislature is going to exhaust its four years, but Junts maintains that the first 12 months are already evidence that the deal is not working.
On this premise, those from Puigdemont assure that it is unthinkable for them to consider giving support to the Budgets. The rejection is not only applicable to the accounts, but also affects any legislative initiative sought by the Government. The socialists assume that it is difficult to count on the votes of Junts for the legislature to flow, even more so when the group of deputies led by Miriam Nogueras has already shown signs of opulation.
Puigdemont’s warning to blow up the legislature if the processing of the question of confidence in Sánchez is not accepted would have “irreversible consequences,” he said, taking the form of an ultimatum but, in reality, the threat was always there. Since the Junts deputies in Congress validated the election of the socialist Francina Armengol as president of the Board, first, and the investiture of Sánchez, later, the party’s refrain was that more than a stability pact, what had been signed It was a transaction in which Junts imposed “charging in advance.”
The message resonated so much with the Junts leadership that Puigdemont experienced Sánchez’s refusal to let him govern the Generalitat after having lost the Catalan elections on May 12 as a profound setback. He former president He fell behind Salvador Illa, seven seats less, and the independence movement lost its majority in the Chamber. But Puigdemont understood, and proclaimed it publicly, that Sánchez had to mediate for the PSC to resign from the Generalitat and, through abstention, facilitate his re-election as president.
The role of Junts has been relegated to being the opposition in the Parliament, but without its leader being able to act as a protagonist in Catalonia and focusing on showing ERC as Illa’s crutch. Puigdemont, unlike Junqueras, may enjoy internal unanimity, but the experience of presiding electronically has not always been successful.
An ace in manga
Both leaders boast about Sánchez’s need for their votes. But, on a personal level, this parliamentary relationship also has benefits for them. While waiting for the amnesty to reach the Constitutional Court, having the socialist in La Moncloa implies an ace up the sleeve for both of them, in the event that they have to resort to the European instance to apply the law they had put as a condition to invest the leader of the PSOE. European justice would ask the parties to take a position and it is in the interests of the pro-independence supporters that Sánchez still governs.
The decision of the respective bases to place Junqueras and Puigdemont in the presidencies of their respective parties does not cease to have a retro flavor. The lack of personal harmony of both is highly known, despite the multiple attempts to rebuild bridges. Until now, the dialogue of the independence folder was carried out directly by the general secretaries, Jordi Turull and the already exnumber of the from ERC, Marta Rovira.
