Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said goodbye to the year with an auspicious agricultural metaphor “In 2025, we will continue working to turn dreams into reality. We will redouble our planting efforts. And we will have an increasingly generous harvest.” The media often talk about “Lula 3”as if it were a film sequel rather than his third experience in the Executive. The first two governments lasted between 2003 and 2010. He returned to power like a firefighter to put out the iBolsonarist fire, faced an attempted coup d’état eight days after taking office on January 8, 2023, and ends this 2024 with social and economic achievements that have not translated into good results for the ruling party in the municipal elections nor are they reflected in the opinion polls.
Lula is the leader of a left partythat of the Workers (PT), who heads a 18-party coalition government tilted towards the center. This heterogeneous alliance, which also includes the right, represents, according to analyst Marcus André Melo, “a high management cost.” The former union member knows this and that is why he especially celebrates the fulfillment of some of the electoral promises that returned him to the Planalto Palace.
According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 8.7 million people escaped poverty y 3.5 million destitute during 2023. The number reflects a special effort by the authorities to recover the ground lost during the years of Jair Bolsonaro. The pending issues remain enormous: there are still 59 million poor people and 9.5 million indigent people in Brazil. The economy has grown this year almost three points. The inflation In these 12 months it has been below 5%. The IBGE has in turn reported that the paroof 6.1%, is the lowest in the last decade. The labor informality It is still high, close to 39%, and impacts tax collection.
Lula’s health, a matter of state
Lula turned 79 on October 27. A blow to the back of the head, as a result of a fall, led to an intracranial hematoma and he had to undergo emergency surgery in San Pablo, weeks ago. A few days later, and in a self-celebrated display of recovery and vitality, he resumed his activities. “The issue of age is a public concern for Lula,” said Bruno Boghossian, columnist for the São Paulo newspaper ‘Folha’. Although the issue “is usually the subject of political exploitation that goes beyond the limits of sordidness, the leader of the PT has given few indications that he is going to treat the issue as a taboo.” The ministers who deal daily with the president “admit that they have already adapted to the routine of a Lula that clearly “It doesn’t have the same energy as it did 20 years ago.”. Lula has delegated decisions and negotiations that “he used to handle with ease during his two previous terms.”
Will there be “Lula 4”? The latest Datafolha survey, from December 12 and 13, shows that a 35% of Brazilians consider its management optimal. A relatively smaller percentage expresses their rejection. Speculation about his strength will accompany the process of definitions for the 2026 presidential elections. Lula, meanwhile, must balance between providing the PT with competitiveness, facing the challenges that arise on the horizon with the inauguration of Donald Trump in the United States and maintain the precarious political balance with the governors of the main states who belong to different factions of the right.
Economic adjustment
The word “adjustment” is not only the heritage of the Argentine far-right, Javier Milei: it has also arrived in Brazil, accompanied by a process of currency devaluation of almost 28% annually. The fall of the real, the local currency, could have been more pronounced had a robust Central Bank not intervened, with reserves of about 350 billion dollars. Much of the economic power expected a more severe fiscal policy. But Lula was inflexible in his position: the “adjustment” cannot affect the social inclusion program. “If the State does not take care of itself and spends more, with what resources will it meet the needs of the poorest and neediest?” In the midst of these limits, the president sanctioned before the end of the year the law that limits the salary increase above inflation. The proposal, presented by the Government within the framework of its program of public spending restrictions, found the green light in Congress.
The leader of the PT closes the year with a international success. Brazilian diplomacy played an important role in ensuring that Mercosur finish closing its trade agreement with the EU. The South American giant is one of the main beneficiaries of this understanding between the two blocs, and one of the reasons for Argentine discontent, which wants to negotiate a similar treaty with USA. Lula has also regained some of the global credibility in the lfight against climate change after years of denialism. The environmental movement, however, demands more actions than words, especially after the fires in the Amazon and the historic Rio Grande do Sul floods.
The year of De Moraes
If Lula was able, despite certain adversities, to make a positive assessment of this year, the other main protagonist of 2024 is the judge of the Tribunal Supremo Federal (STF), Alexandre de Moraes. His efforts to elucidate responsibilities for the January 8, 2023 overthrow attempt have made steady progress and increasingly compromise Bolsonaro. De Moraes, as an authority of the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), had already politically disqualified the former Army captain until 2030 for having questioned the transparency of the 2022 elections in which he was defeated by the current president.
The case against the coup plotters He left important revelations weeks ago. The investigation by the Federal Police (PF) not only allowed us to clarify the conspiracy plot but also its ambitions: the murder of Lula and De Moraes, among others. The Attorney General’s Office now has in its hands the decision to tighten the fence around Bolsonaro. The former president, for his part, hopes to have the double luck of Trump: to avoid the courts and return to the Planalto Palace despite the fact that he is judicially prohibited from doing so.
