The Central Bank released this Monday (30) the Focus Bulletin with market bets on 2025 and expectations of how economic activities should end this year; according to the report, inflationary pressure will rise from 4.84% to 4.96%
This Monday (30), the released the Focus Bulletin, which highlights market expectations for the year 2025, as well as economic forecasts for the end of 2023. According to the report, there was a slight reduction in the economic growth estimate for next year, passing from 2.02% to 2.01%. On the other hand, the inflation projection for 2025 increased, rising from 4.84% to 4.96%. Furthermore, the dollar exchange rate for 2025 is projected at R$5.96. For the year 2024, inflation should end at 4.90%, still above the established target ceiling.
For the year 2026, expectations have also changed. The projection for the Selic rose to 12%, and the estimates for inflation and the dollar were adjusted, with inflation forecast at 4.01% and the dollar at R$5.90. Economic growth expectations were slightly lowered, now projected at 1.8%. In relation to the year 2024, the forecast for the dollar was raised to R$6.05. The GDP growth expectation, however, was maintained at 3.49%. Furthermore, the projection for the in turn, was reduced to 4.9%, reflecting a slight improvement in inflationary expectations for next year.
Last Friday (27), the ended the day at R$6.192, in a scenario of uncertainty regarding the government’s fiscal policy. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to increase the Selic by 1 percentage point and indicated the possibility of two more increases in January and March, citing concerns about the inflationary dynamics that could worsen.
*With information from Jornal da Manhã
*Report produced with the help of AI
