Global politics will experience an “electoral hangover” in 2025, after the year that is ending brought a contingent of voters estimated at more than 1.6 billion people to the polls. The presidential or parliamentary disputes in 2024 moved people in Russia, India, Japan, France, South Africa, Uruguay, Venezuela and, especially, among others.
A common point in 2024 was the strong pressure on parties and politicians in power. As the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (Cidob) recalls in a report, even the incumbent forces that resisted came out weakened from these disputes, as in the cases of , or by , and in .
The study of think tank Spanish recalls that, five years after the coronavirus pandemic, many countries are still struggling with the public debt they incurred to combat the economic and social damage of this global health crisis.
“The pandemic has left us with a more indebted, more digitalized and individualistic world, where discordant responses between the great global powers have gained ground. (…) Climatic, economic and geopolitical objectives are increasingly divergent. In this world, not only policies clash, but also speeches”, says the text.
Thus, old social and cultural fractures intensified: from culture wars to the fight for control of information and bubbles built by algorithms on social media. “The elections in the United States, Pakistan, India, Romania, Moldova and Georgia gave a good account of the destabilizing power of alternative narratives.”
And this should also appear in 2025. Although the nations that will have disputes in the New Year are not the most relevant in the global context, they have strategic importance in their regions and could determine a strengthening of the trend described above.
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See a list of the main elections of the year:
Belarus
The country controlled by dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko, an ally and friend of Vladimir Putin, will make the same type of move on January 26th. Unlike the 2020 “dispute”, the Electoral Commission only allowed the registration of symbolic candidates, none of them from the opposition, which is silenced or imprisoned. Thus, Europe’s longest-serving president, in power since 1994, will only renew his seventh presidential term.
As Freedon House recalls, the Lukashenko regime’s brutal and continuous repression, in response to mass protests against his 2020 victory, effectively eliminated the political opposition, independent media and civil society opinion in the country. The Viasna Human Rights Center, a Belarusian organization, reported that more than 3,600 people have been held as political prisoners since 2020, with 1,296 in custody by the end of November 2024.
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Ecuador
General elections in Ecuador are scheduled for February 9. Centrist politician Daniel Noboa won the 2023 extraordinary presidential election, called by his predecessor – the liberal conservative Guillermo Lasso – to avoid his dismissal by Congress. Noboa will seek re-election, this time for a normal constitutional period of four years, but this against a backdrop overshadowed by the brutal wave of criminal violence afflicting the country. His main rival will again be Luisa González, linked to former president Rafael Correa.
In addition to the dispute itself, Noboa faces the problem of a political break with his vice-president, Veronica Abad. The president managed to remove her from office, but one . Thus, Noboa would have difficulty taking leave from his position and dedicating himself solely to the re-election campaign.
Germany
German voters will go to the polls on February 23, in , after the three-party ruling coalition collapsed in November. Polls show a strong possibility of a return to power for the coalition led by the Christian Democrats (CDU) with the Bavarian CSU, although the ultra-right AfD party is growing in preferences.
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The CDU, owned by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is currently led by Friedrich Merz, favorite to take over the chancellorship in case of victory. But it is believed this election could be the most successful yet for the AfD, with current projections putting the party in second place with around a fifth of the vote.
Poland
The 2025 presidential election in Poland will be a kind of referendum on Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) government. The race will test whether the government can maintain public trust amid growing concerns about inflation, public services and national security.
The constitutional calendar determines that the first round of the election will be held on a Sunday in May 2025. Although the date has not yet been defined, the dispute must take place on the 4th, 11th, or 18th. If no candidate receives at least 50 % of votes in the first round, a second round between the two most voted will be held two weeks later.
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The bet of the Civic Coalition, a pro-European Union and liberal conservative party, is to win the direct election and abandon the cohabitation of the Executive with the head of state elected in 2015 and re-elected in 2020, Andrzej Duda, from the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS ).
In the Polish mixed government system, the president has important responsibilities, and Duda has frequently blocked Tusk’s legislative agenda, vetoing important initiatives and withholding approval of ambassadorial appointments. But if PiS maintains influence over the presidency, it could further obstruct Tusk’s government, leaving the administration paralyzed until 2027.
Bolivia
The presidential elections in Bolivia, scheduled for August 17, will take place in a context of political violence in the Andean country. The ruling party, the Movement to Socialism (MAS), is being the scene of a major leadership dispute: the incumbent President of the Republic, Luis Arce, and his predecessor in office, Evo Morales.
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Officially, Morales is disqualified, both due to the process of an alleged relationship with a minor when he was president, in 2019, and due to the Constitutional Court’s decision to prohibit a third term.
On June 26, someone mobilized armored vehicles and broke down the door of the old Government Palace. But the coup attempt failed after three hours. Evo Morales classified the incident as a “self-coup” by Arce.
The opposition, which includes former Bolivian presidents Carlos Mesa (2003-2005) and Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002), entered into a unity agreement with two other leaders — businessman Samuel Doria Medina and governor Luis Fernando Camacho — and is expected to present a unique name for the dispute.
Canada
Federal elections in Canada are scheduled for October 20th. The Prime Minister of the Liberal Party, Justin Trudeau, faces the renewal of the House of Commons, in a situation of great personal strain after a long period in power, which extends since 2015. The center-left Liberals have governed in a parliamentary minority since 2019 and, after three consecutive victories, see Pierre Poilievre’s conservatives vastly surpass them in the polls. A series of controversies and mistakes have dimmed the star of the once very popular progressive Trudeau.
Argentina
The legislative elections in Argentina, scheduled for October 26, will be a major test of popularity for President Javier Milei and his Freedom Advances party. The South American country will renew a third of its senators (24) and half of its national deputies (127) and the result could bring a rebalance of forces. Milei had to resort to agreements with Mauricio Macri’s Republican Proposal and the Radical Civic Union to approve his projects to remodel the Argentine economy. In the 2023 legislative elections, Milei’s coalition debuted with 35 deputies, 23 less than the Peronist União Pela Pátria.
Chile
General elections in Chile take place on November 16th. As consecutive presidential re-election is not allowed in the country, Gabriel Boric, elected in 2021 and whose administration is facing difficulties in the polls, will leave room for another candidate from the center-left political coalition in power. Although neither the left nor the center-right opposition, nor even the extreme right, have clearly defined the names for the dispute, some favorites emerge.
Economist Evelyn Rose Matthei Fornet, center-right mayor of Providencia since 2016, is a name often mentioned in polls, although José Antonio Kast, head of the far-right Republican Party, is still very strong.
On the left, former president Michelle Bachelet appears more strongly in the polls, but she announced that she does not intend to run. So the most likely names are Claudio Orrego, governor of the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, and ministers Carolina Tohá and Camila Vallejo.
