The ups and downs have come to a head in three months as the jailed PKK leader now appears willing to contribute to the Erdogan government’s “new paradigm” and declare an end to the armed struggle. Both sides talk about “brotherhood” and “reconciliation”, but they should take concrete steps in a fluid environment, both in Turkey and in the neighboring countries.
Erdogan’s tactics in Kurdish
The Kurdish government’s “goodwill gestures” began in October and are linked to the rapid developments initiated by Ankara in Syria. A constant denominator of Turkish policy is to prevent at all costs the creation of a Kurdish state.
The new strongman of Damascus is already moving in this direction, who claims the inclusion of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the Ministry of Defense and in its future army.
Many were surprised on October 1 by the move made by the nationalist leader in the Turkish National Assembly. President Erdogan’s government partner shook hands with the leaders of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy and Equality Party who were surprised but returned the handshake.
This was followed, on October 22, by Bahtceli’s speech to his party’s parliamentary group, in which he invited Ocalan to go to the Parliament in order to “declare the end of terrorism and its dissolution”.
The next day, Erdogan spoke of “a historic window of opportunity” opened by Bakhceli, avoiding talking about the peace process, much less about Ocalan’s release from prison.
After this development, the left-wing pro-Kurdish party again submitted a request for a meeting of its executives with Ocalan on the prison island of Imrali.
The role of Jolani
At the same time, in Syria, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels under Jolani were tacitly preparing with the support of Turkey the counter-offensive that would begin in late November and bring them to Damascus in just 12 days, while threatening Kurdish autonomy. in the northeastern part of the country.
With the Syrian Kurds under pressure from Ankara and its allies, the Turkish authorities finally gave permission for two DEM MPs (Pervin Buldan and Siri Sureya Oder) to visit Ocalan for the first time in 10 years.
After the meeting that took place last Saturday in Imrali, the MPs conveyed Ocalan’s determination to “contribute positively to the new paradigm advocated by Mr. Bakhceli and Mr. Erdogan.”
The delegation undertook to convey “to the state and political circles” that Ocalan is “ready to take the necessary positive steps and the intended appeal”.
In the same announcement of the DEM it is noted that Ocalan is in good health, has high morale while he considers strengthening the brotherhood of Turks and Kurds as an urgent matter of decisive importance for all peoples. “Recent developments in Gaza and Syria show that resolving the issue, which has been exacerbated by external factors, can no longer be postponed.”
The traps
Apparently Ankara sees opportunities in Kurdish management after the upheavals in Syria. But Kurdish hides pitfalls for everyone. Perhaps the “new paradigm” is more of a forced maneuver.
The memories of the peace process that started in 2013 with a message from Ocalan from prison and drowned in 2015 in a bloodbath in which jihadists of the Islamic State played a leading role are still fresh.
