After reaping victories in the 2024 municipal elections, from which the center-right emerged strengthened, governors in opposition to the president () are looking for a path to .
With () ineligible due to two convictions in the (Superior Electoral Court), (Republicanos-SP), (-GO), (-PR), (-RS) and (Novo-MG) are considered for the Presidency.
The plan is accepted by some, like Caiado, and rejected by others, like Tarcísio, but the governors and their parties have talked about holding talks in order to seek unification and a viable name to face Lula.
Tarcísio is the favorite for governing, maintaining a good approval rating and moving between two worlds, Bolsonarism and the non-Bolsonarist right. Even politicians who defend a centrist candidacy do not usually exclude him from the articulations.
In yet another gesture of loyalty to Bolsonaro, who has ignored his ineligibility and said he will be a candidate in 2026, Tarcísio. “What is my option, what is my path in 26? It is to continue in São Paulo. […] We have very interesting projects to deliver in 28, 29, 30”, he told Band in December.
If Tarcísio decides to run for Planalto, the tendency of other center-right parties would be to support him, given that they are now part of his base. Without him in the game, the race could be more diffuse, with each party supporting the candidacy of its governor.
His work as an electoral campaigner in the capital of São Paulo, where he was re-elected (), accredited Tarcísio as an organizer and presidential candidate. Disputes in the state, however, widened the split at its base, worsening the animosity between Bolsonaro supporters and the PSD.
In São Paulo, the , electing mayors in 205 of 645 cities. Other allied parties, such as PL, Republicans, MDB and PP, also grew, while the PT won in just four municipalities.
Although the local scenario is favorable, Tarcísio’s presidential project depends on Bolsonaro choosing him as successor — even though he is the preferred name among right-wing politicians and businesspeople, the governor was not appointed by the former president.
Even if he is the anointed one, allies say Tarcísio could refuse the post. In any case, Bolsonaro’s children have also emerged as an option, given their father’s ineligibility.
Caiado, in turn, has already said that he intends to run regardless of the arrangements between the other governors and parties — his age, 75 years old, is pointed out as a factor in why he wants to run in 2026.
The governor of Goiás, however, does not have Bolsonaro’s sympathy, on the contrary. Eles, in which Caiado’s candidate, Sandro Mabel (União Brasil), beat Bolsonarist Fred Rodrigues (PL).
“I will be a candidate for President of the Republic. There are no conditions for my candidacy. I will be a candidate in 2026. If he [Bolsonaro] it will be or not, I will be”, the governor told UOL News in October.
The plan depends on the . In December, he and Mabel were accused of abusing political power by using the Palácio das Esmeraldas for meetings with alleged electoral purposes.
The decision may be appealed, both to the TRE (Regional Electoral Court) of Goiás and then to the TSE.
Caiado also had a good result in his backyard, with 95 city halls. Furthermore, the governor is highly rated, but police violence is a negative aspect, even though crime has decreased.
Surfing the result of the PSD in Paraná (isolated leader with 164 out of 399 city halls, including Curitiba), presenting good approval credentials, infrastructure works and a privatization agenda.
The governor, however, depends on Kassab proposing to launch his own candidate, which should only be discussed in 2025. The PSD president is in favor of this option in principle, but would have to back down if Tarcísio decides to run.
Aligned with Bolsonaro, Ratinho also has as an obstacle the fact that his party is part of the Lula government, even though the party should not support the president’s re-election.
Eduardo Leite, who was considered a presidential candidate in 2022, is still in the game until 2026, although other governors have gained prominence.
“I remain focused on helping to build an alternative for 2026 that is not Lula or Bolsonaro. I was already willing to be that name in 2022, why wouldn’t it be now?”, he said.
For PSDB politicians, Leite is an excellent candidate, but the party, diminished after the 2022 election, admits that it is necessary and that a presidential candidacy of its own is difficult.
In Rio Grande do Sul, those are based in Leite (PP, MDB and PL), and the PSDB has grown to 35 city halls.
Zema, on the other hand, is aligned with Bolsonaro and should not be a candidate if he is to divide the right — his name has lost strength among part of the center-right parties, which see a lack of viability in the governor of Minas, a target for erosion in the state.
Unlike the other governors listed for Planalto, Zema, Belo Horizonte, in which Fuad Noman (PSD) was re-elected.
The governor told CNN Brasil in December that he has no intention of running for President and that he would support a right-wing or center-right candidate unless there is a consensus in his favor.
“If that name is my person, I have no pretensions, I personally would even like to be supporting more than being [candidato]but, for me, mission given is mission accomplished”, he said.
