Apple’s plans to increase sales in China, the UK real estate sector and the new president of the Central Bank are among the topics
Wall Street is trading slightly higher this Thursday (Jan 2, 2025), ahead of the release of weekly unemployment figures and the main data on US industrial activity. The equivalent Chinese market figures showed some improvement, with Apple offering rare discounts on its iPhones in the country.
UK house prices indicated a resilient sector. In Brazil, the highlight is the new presidency of the Central Bank.
1. Apple
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is offering discounts on its latest iPhone models in China, a rare move that points to increased competition from domestic rivals in the world’s biggest smartphone market. The promotion runs from January 4th to 7th, according to the company’s website, and applies to several iPhone models.
Apple is battling declining market share in the important Chinese market as competition from local manufacturers becomes more intense. Huawei has emerged as a particularly strong competitor and slashed prices on several high-end devices, including mobile phones, over the weekend on one of China’s top e-commerce platforms.
Apple briefly dropped out of China’s top 5 smartphone vendors in Q2 2024, before recovering in Q3. That said, its smartphone sales in China still fell 0.3% during Q3 from a year earlier, while Huawei’s sales rose 42%, according to research firm IDC.
US stock futures rose on Thursday (Jan 2), as 2025 began with positive momentum after strong gains in the previous year.
At 8:05 am (Brasília time), the Dow futures contract was up 0.45%, the S&P 500 futures was up 0.67%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures was up 0.83%.
The major averages gave back some gains in the final days of 2024, but still ended with solid returns. The S&P 500 rose 23% last year, the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 13%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 29% advance.
US equity markets may struggle to continue posting such strong gains into 2025 as the (Federal Reserve, North American Central Bank) signaled a more cautious stance in relation to cutting interest rates.
The holiday-shortened week was light in terms of economic data, but this Thursday you will be able to see weekly unemployment claims data, as well as S&P global manufacturing PMI data for December, ahead of the official monthly unemployment report. jobs next week.
2. Chinese industrial activity
Chinese industrial activity grew in December, but at a slower pace than expected, suggesting that recent stimulus measures are struggling to boost the world’s second-largest economy.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI grew 50.5 in December, compared to expectations of 51.6 and the previous month’s reading of 51.5.
The private survey came just days after government PMI data also showed the manufacturing sector expanded in December, but at a slightly slower pace than expected.
The Caixin reading differs from the official reading in its scope, in that the government survey focuses more on larger state-owned companies in the north, while the Caixin data covers smaller private companies in the south. Investors often use both readings to get a broader view of the Chinese economy.
Beijing has been rolling out a series of stimulus measures since late September, but is still expected to announce tougher measures in 2025 in the face of rising trade headwinds with Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Trump has promised to impose heavy trade tariffs on China, which could bode ill for the world’s second-largest economy, which is struggling to sustain growth.
3. United Kingdom
UK house prices rose in December, according to mortgage lender Nationwide, as the country’s property market recovery continued.
UK property prices rose 0.7% month-on-month in December, following a 1.2% rise in November, Nationwide reported.
The resilience of the UK property market surprised many, given indications of weakening activity across the economy, with prices ending the year 4.7% higher than their December 2023 level, up from 3.7% in November – the highest annual growth rate since the end of 2022.
“Mortgage market activity and home prices have proven surprisingly resilient in 2024, given the ongoing affordability challenges facing potential buyers”said Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide.
4. Oil
Oil prices rose on Thursday (Jan 2), helped by declining US oil inventories, as traders cautiously watched an economic recovery in China, the world’s biggest importer.
At 8:08 am, US crude oil (WTI) futures rose 1.48% to US$72.78 per barrel, while the Brent contract rose 1.41% to US$75.69 per barrel.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday (Dec 31, 2024) in his New Year speech that the country would implement more proactive policies to promote growth in 2025.
China’s factory activity grew in December, according to the Caixin/S&P Global private sector survey this Thursday (Jan 2), but at a slower pace than expected.
This echoed the official survey on Tuesday (Dec 31, 2024) and suggested that political stimulus is gradually reaching the world’s second largest economy.
The American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday (Dec 31, 2024) that US oil inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels last week.
Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due to be released this Thursday (Jan 2), and a drop in US oil inventories tends to indicate an increase in demand for oil.
5. Banco Central
After harsh criticism from members of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) government against Roberto Campos Neto due to the increase in interest rates, the Brazilian BC (Central Bank) has a new president. Gabriel Galípolo, who was the authority’s director of monetary policy, assumes the presidency with the mission of bringing inflation to the target established by the CMN (National Monetary Council).
The economist has a bachelor’s and master’s degree from the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo, was once a university professor, president of Banco Fator, and had held the position of executive secretary at the Ministry of Finance, an ally of Fernando Haddad.
With unanchored expectations, a high dollar and fiscal pressure, the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BC should start the year with 2 new increases in the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy, the Selic, by 1 percentage point, as per the forward guidance indicated in the last decision of 2024.
With information from .
