Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria… The list could go on for a long time because last year the planet experienced an alarming increase of . Predictably, this resulted in an unprecedented, heartbreaking death toll. At least 233,500 people are estimated to have been killed in conflicts in 2024, according to data released Thursday by ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data), a US NGO that collects data on wars around the world.
For example, ACLED found, among other things, that the number of people killed in conflicts in 2024 has increased by 30% compared to 2023, when there were 179,099 deaths.
The deadliest war this year, according to NGO data, was in with 67,000 deaths. This tragic tally is followed by the occupied Palestinian territories, where in 2024 Israel’s war on Gaza and attacks on the West Bank left behind more than 35,000 recorded deaths. Thousands of victims have also been caused by the conflicts in Sudan and in , although “the planet doesn’t give them the attention they need”as the Spanish “El Pais” comments.
A hallmark of the increase in hostilities worldwide is that one in eight people worldwide will be exposed to conflict in 2024 – according to the research, those living within 5 km or less than one conflict are considered exposed. They are the people facing the highest level of violence in the world since according to the data, 81% of the population is exposed to conflict.
In the few days remaining until the end of the year, the number of hostilities is forecast to be 25% higher than last year, and is expected to be twice as high as five years ago.
This, the NGO’s research explains, is due to the sharp increase in Lebanon (958%), as a few months before the end of the year, but also in Russia (349%), which this year, in the midst of its war in Ukraine, experienced increase in attacks on its territories but also the first invasion since World War II.
In fact, speaking to the “Washington Post” Klond RaleighProfessor of Political Geography and Conflict at the University of Sussex and founder of ACLED, explained that she expects this trend to continue into 2025, noting “possible violent outbursts” in Iran, Chad, Ecuador and Pakistan.
56 active wars in the world
However, this trend has also been highlighted by other researches. Most notably, the report by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace, published over the summer. According to its data, last July there were 56 active military conflicts, the most since the end of .
At the same time, 92 countries were involved in wars outside their borders. In addition, 95 million people are or are internally displaced due to violent conflict, while there are 16 countries hosting more than half a million refugees each. Experts and analysts explain that the unprecedented high levels of conflict worldwide have multiple and complex causes.
One of them is simply the choices of world leaders, such as the decision of the Russian president Vladimir Putin . Another is the fact that the way hostilities are carried out has changed, since now the use of missiles, drones and remotely activated explosives is becoming more and more widespread, making the process more “simplified”. It is characteristic that according to ACLED research, bombings and ballistic attacks have increased by 300% in the last five years.
On the other hand, some conflicts seem to be linked to the internal politics of the countries and the elections. 2024 was the most “electoral” of all election years, with some 80 countries, together accounting for more than half the world’s population, going to the polls. Several of these countries, according to ACLED and other surveys, have seen a significant increase in violence, such as Mexico.
The internationalization of conflicts
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) gives yet another reason for the increase in hostilities in the world through its research series “The Armed Conflict Survey”: the increasing internationalization of internal conflicts.
In particular, civil wars, which remain the dominant form of conflict worldwide, are now increasingly shaped by the intervention of regional and global powers seeking to secure or enforce their strategic interests. As noted in last year’s report, this trend is driven by increased great power competition and the more assertive foreign policy positions of many emerging powers, in a context of escalating geopolitical fragmentation.
In an ominous forecast, ACLED predicts a 20% increase in conflict in the new year, as there are many areas of concern, such as Colombia and Mexico, along with several areas of Africa, such as the Sahel. In the meantime, the Middle East remains in a period of great uncertainty, while the risk of new wars with it or Russia as protagonists cannot be ruled out. Of course, some of the conflicts could defuse – particularly the war in Ukraine and possibly the war in the Gaza Strip.
For now, it remains to be clarified, among other things, the policy that will be followed by the newly elected president of the USA Donald Trumpwho has repeatedly pledged to “stop the war” and he has claimed that he is going to resolve all these conflicts once he takes office, in less than a month.
