Marked by disagreements between the Powers, 2024 ended leaving a legacy of loose ends for the year that now begins. Edges being trimmed throughout 2025, whose prospects are not the best.
in open conflict with the because of parliamentary amendments —among other disputes— with an Executive seeking to balance between the two without being hit by the gunfire. It has not worked, because it has attracted distrust from Congress.
This suspicion is largely well-founded, as the Palácio do Planalto did not disguise its investment in an alliance with the Federal Supreme Court as a way of circumventing obstacles in the transit of its interests in a Parliament with a skittish majority.
And there are no communication arrangements that can resolve this rivalry because it is permanent tension that sustains the power of deputies and senators over the .
The only factor that could change the situation would be a high popularity of the head of the nation. It was like this in previous terms of office.
At the time, Parliament was also, as today, majority oppositionist in composition with forces from the center to the right prevailing over the left. However, the population there showed support for the president by a large margin in the polls.
In the middle of the second government, . That makes all the difference. It is the distance that separates the solicitude from the hostility of the congressmen. They live off votes and, therefore, prefer the company of those who can give them an electoral advantage.
You can see in the air where this trend is going. It’s always been like this. In the throes of the 1980s, the Arena dissidents felt the burning smell of popular rejection and abandoned the regime’s candidate, Paulo Maluf, to join Tancredo Neves in the 1985 electoral college that marked the beginning of redemocratization. .
There goes 40 years. A lot has changed, but pragmatism remains in control of politics and in the choices of the electorate, which responds well when motivated by something that seems stimulating and has the potential to yield benefits.
This, in this visit to Planalto, Lula is unable to offer. Retrofitting good social programs is not satisfactory. Over time, the population tends to incorporate them as their own assets; a duty, not a benefit from public authorities.
A Voa Brasil here, a Desenrola there, an Pense or a Pé de Meia there are well-received initiatives that, however, do not have the effect that the president imagined and would like them to have. These are actions seen as more of the same. The public, rightly so, always wants more.
If there is no renewal, the validity period of popular reciprocity expires. It happened with the Real Plan and several government achievements. He was elected and re-elected in the first round, but did not make a successor.
The price of the political/electoral reward is eternal vigilance over what society’s demands are in the present. Currently the greatest desire is for some solution that reduces the environment of insecurity in the face of the spread of crime.
It’s not easy to solve, but neither were combating inflation and dismantling the dictatorship. It took courage, willingness to confront, capacity for political articulation, partisan detachment, renunciation of personalism, among other attributes that do not make up the portfolio.
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