New version of the cruise missile does not promise, according to experts, to be a “game changer”. Still, it could breathe new life into the war. Especially in the messages that need to be sent to Washington, as the White House prepares for a new tenant with a different view of the conflict: Donald Trump
It is called Trembita and is one of the symbols of the desire for Ukrainian autonomy on the battlefield. Mainly because Kiev will be preparing a version of this cruise missile capable of reaching Moscow.
The current version of Trembita, which has been in development since 2023, has a range of around 140 kilometers. PARS, the Ukrainian company responsible for producing this weapon, is said to be working on a version with at least 700 kilometers of range – a distance that, from the border, allows it to reach the Russian capital, Moscow.
According to the international press, the desire is for the new version of Trembita to be ready within a year. The current model, which according to military experts stands out for its simplicity, has a production cost of around 10 thousand dollars. And the successor must maintain this economic trait. For comparison purposes, an ATACMS missile, like those supplied by the United States of America (USA) to Kiev, costs around one million dollars.
Can Ukraine produce Trembita alone?
Before we understand whether the new version of Trembita will change the course of the war, it is important to understand whether Ukraine will even have the capacity to produce it alone. Military experts interviewed by CNN Portugal guarantee that yes.
“Ukraine has a production capacity that dates back to the times of the former USSR. It never stopped having old engineers, great mechanics and designers. It has a great tradition of producing heavy weapons”, points out Isidro de Morais Pereira. The major general cites Volodymyr Zelensky’s New Year’s speech to state that 30% of the weapons used by the Ukrainian military in 2024 were produced entirely in Ukraine.
Highlighting that the Trembita “is not a very sophisticated weapon”, Agostinho Costa agrees that “Ukraine has the technological capacity to build sophisticated weapons systems”, with an emphasis on drones.
But, even with this favorable history, Major General Carlos Branco leaves a warning: “Ukraine has a serious energy problem”, which could affect this productive objective.
Russian Iskander-K missile (AP Photo/ Russian Defense Ministry Press Service)
What help from the West cannot Ukraine do without?
Even if the objective is greater autonomy, Kiev will not be able to give up the support it has been receiving from the West to produce a cruise missile capable of reaching Moscow.
“Ukraine needs Western support, but not so much money. What is needed is that Western countries continue to provide free access to cutting-edge technology, namely microchips, necessary to build missiles”, points out Isidro de Morais Pereira.
Still, Agostinho Costa reiterates, money is always welcome in Ukraine, since the “country’s budget is assured” by the West. And, without a flexible budget, it becomes more difficult to adapt priorities on the battlefield.
Could this new missile change warfare?
Could a missile capable of reaching Moscow change the course of the war? Experts do not believe in substantial changes on the ground.
“It’s more of a system, not a ‘game changer’. These missiles are part of a range of resources that Ukraine already has”, emphasizes Agostinho Costa. Furthermore, there is still no certainty about the degree of accuracy of this new resource.
Despite recognizing that the new version of Trembita would have a “remarkable range”, exceeding 700 kilometers, Isidro de Morais Pereira warns that “Ukraine has other missiles” that use similar technology.
“This new version of Trembita becomes relevant because some Western leaders were very cautious, not to say fearful, in the face of Putin’s threats. And any soldier knows that there is no war that can be won only with defense”, he adds.
The new Trembita would allow Ukraine to reach a different set of targets, such as command posts, industrial complexes and energy production points.
But will it become reality? Only time will tell, warns Major General Carlos Branco: “We are facing systematic and repeated rhetoric about miracle weapons. These things are not announced, they happen. The Russians didn’t say they had the Oreshnik missiles. They employed us.”
Zelensky com Trump (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP)
What message for the US and Trump?
News about the existence of a new Ukrainian missile capable of reaching Moscow gains momentum when the world is three weeks away from seeing Donald Trump take office again as president of the USA.
And, with it, fears about a cut (or even an end point) in American support gain strength. For military experts, there is a subliminal message in the news about this new cruise missile.
This is not Kiev telling Washington that Ukraine can get away with it alone. On the contrary: it is Kiev showing that it is not at rock bottom, that it still has a lot of energy and willingness to fight, that it needs the USA to reach a peaceful solution.
Isidro de Morais Pereira recalls that, in his New Year’s speech, Zelensky said he believed that the US would be with Ukraine in the first minutes of peace. “It is showing Washington that it is determined to be a free country and in charge of its destiny. And, therefore, it deserves to be supported”, he says.
