Data from the beginning of the government and the end of 2024 show that the president did not increase and even lost part of the support he received at the polls in 2022
Presidential approval studies (PT), released by the country’s main research companies, indicate that the Chief Executive’s popularity has fallen since taking office.
The set of data indicates that, despite talking about “union and reconstruction”the president was unable to break the polarization and advance over the electorate that did not vote for him in 2022 (he was elected with 50.90% of the votes). Even worse for the PT member is that the numbers show that he lost a portion of the group that elected him.
O Poder360 compared the results of 6 companies (, , , , / and ) considering the 1st survey carried out in 2023 and the last survey carried out in 2024. Considering all the research in this survey, the PT member will enter the 2nd half of his term with less support than what was achieved at the polls.
From January 2023 to December 2024, the positive evaluation rates of the president or government – the way of asking is different between surveys – fell in most studies. Only when comparing surveys carried out by Datafolha, the variation is within the margin of error, but is still negative for Planalto.
The negative percentages had the opposite movement, with strong increases. Only when comparing studies carried out by PowerData the president’s negative assessment fluctuated favorably for Lula, with a drop of 2 percentage points from January 2023 to December 2024, within the survey’s margin of error.
The biggest difference in the positive rate was recorded by PowerData: the president’s work was evaluated as “bom” or “excellent” by 43% of voters in and . Despite this, as stated above, the assessment “roomy” or “terrible” fell 2 percentage points in the period. Voters flocked to the assessment “regular” –considered a pit stop before the electorate definitively changes their opinion.
Quaest was the company that recorded the biggest difference in negative evaluation: an increase of 11 percentage points in the period. In the 1st survey, carried out from February 10 to 13, 2023, 20% of voters said they had a bad or terrible perception of the Lula government. This assessment rose to 31% in the study released in December.
The analysis of opinion polls must be carried out over a determined period of time and with sequential studies to obtain, in a more objective way, the electorate’s tendency. The results of the 6 companies mentioned clearly show a negative bias towards the government in the evaluation curves.
Lula was elected with 50.90% of the votes. The direct migration of voters from the positive to the negative rate in most studies indicates that the federal administration among those who previously had sympathy for the administration.
The government enters its 3rd year with challenges in regaining popularity. Among them, facing the rise in the dollar, which is due to fiscal uncertainties; control; and put a brake on public spending. All these indicators put pressure on prices and, consequently, influence the population’s mood with the current government.
METHODOLOGY
O Poder360 considered only the 1st and last national study of government approval or the work of the president (PT) released by 6 research companies: , , , , / and .
It is necessary to consider that companies have different statements when questioning interviewees about the government’s assessment. To include as many companies as possible, formulations were selected that allowed interviewees to evaluate the federal administration or the president himself in a positive, negative or “regular”.
Here is (PDF – 49 kB) the research used in the survey.
SEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Poder360 maintains a collection of thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to monitor the progress of each candidate. Access the Survey Aggregator .
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist editorial director of Poder360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, .
