The Spanish economy is roaring strongly. Spain has established itself as the locomotive of Europe: GDP is growing more than 2%, three times faster than the eurozone. just overtake Germany and has become the leading exporter in Europe. The Economist, the economic magazine par excellence, considers that the Spanish economy is doing the best of the major economies in the world. It is based on a combination of factors including growth, the stock market, inflation, unemployment and the fiscal balance.
There is a glimpse, however, of a big cloud on the horizon for Spain: Donald Trump and his threat to launch a trade war with Europe. An increase in tariffs that would include rates of 10% to 20% for all foreign products, including Spanish ones.
What should be done? How should you respond? Trade policy is managed by the European Union. And there are several currents of thought there. The main one is that must correspond to the imposed tariff to each product with another equivalent. Others in Brussels think that it is best not to respondto avoid the spiral, according to what European sources tell this newspaper.
At the moment, the EU is finalizing a list of specific products that will be subject to countermeasures if the United States imposes new tariffs. It is prepared by a work team known as “the Trump team” (Trump task force), led by the Spanish Alejandro Caínzosaccording to El Confidencial. It has been working at full capacity since the summer.
The list of countermeasures is secret, but could include products such as bourbon whiskey or Harley-Davidson motorcycles. There are also concrete retaliations in preparation for the tariffs that Trump already imposed in 2017 on Spanish black olives, by taxing up to 44% of their price, a tariff that Biden maintained and that Brussels would now fight to overturn, according to Euronews.
Spain exports some 20 billion euros to the United States every year. But the country most directly affected by the new trade barriers would be Germanywhich is the main EU exporter to the North American country, with some 160,000 million euros annually. The German economy is going through a very bad time. The trade war could be the last straw. If it continues to cool (it has been in recession for two years), Spain may not be able to continue driving European growth and sooner or later it will be affected by the slowdown of the German economy.
Diplomatic and political relations
The lack of ideological harmony between the current Government of Spain of Pedro Sánchez, or another that may be led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is manifest. The same thing happens with the majority of EU countries. But gestures of adaptation to the new situation are beginning to be noticed. The French president, Emmanuel Macron invited Donald Trump to Paris for the reopening ceremony of Notre Dame Cathedral. The meeting left an image that is now a classic with the American leader: a kind of handshake pulse in which he tried to appear on top, dominant.
What will your first meeting with the socialist Pedro Sánchez be like? For some of the sources consulted, the best thing that can happen to Spain with Trump is go unnoticed. Sánchez had a hard time gaining the attention of Democrat Joe Biden, but he ended up achieving it and met with him several times. The Madrid-Washington relationship was fluid and without obstacles, except for the fact that the Spanish Government refused to allow the European naval operation Atalanta to get involved in the fight against the Houthis of Yemen in the Red Sea. That was resolved with a phone call between Biden and Sánchez.
The democrat, despite being a great defender of Israel, did not put any public obstacle to Spanish recognition of the State of Palestine nor did he diplomatically punish Spain for its criticism of the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu for the excesses of its offensive in Gaza, now investigated in the courts of The Hague.
But the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues, and Donald Trump has chosen a whole series of convinced Zionists for his Government. For example, Pete Hegseth (the next Secretary of Defense) or Mike Huckabee (ambassador to Israel), who promote the occupation of Palestine and are against the two-state solution defended by Spain, the EU and the majority of United Nations countries. United. How will the Spanish position fit in this new context?
The Government must still respond to the alleged use of Rota bases to send weapons to Israel,. Spain allows the United States to use the base, but it is still Spanish territory and the Government says that weapons cannot be sent from national territory.
More defense spending
During his first term, Trump threatened NATO with withdrawal of the United States if member countries did not fulfill their commitment to spend a 2% of its GDP in Defense. Spain is, officially, at 1.3%. Since the war in Ukraine began, however, the Government of Pedro Sánchez has committed to increasing military spending to reach the objective before 2029.
Now, Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of the Alliance, has raised the desirable target to 3% of GDP. About 3,000 million euros annually for our country. It is foreseeable that the pace of military spending will accelerate due to all this.
This increase could be even greater if Donald Trump carries out his threat to withdraw arms support from Ukraine to force it to negotiate peace with Russia. If the plan proposed by Trump is unacceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (because it forces him to resign from the 20% of territory lost and upon entry into NATO), it is possible that Europe will try to increase its military contribution to improve kyiv’s negotiating position. That would push Spain to pitch in even more. At the moment, this year it has already delivered the 1 billion euros committed to aid the bilateral security pact with Ukraine.
Political dissonances
Trump’s return to power may also disrupt the internal forces of Spanish politics. It will make Vox stronger, the Spanish far-right party that mimics Trumpism in many aspects and enjoys the support of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). All Vox growth It is bad for the Popular Party.
It will also strengthen other European far-right partners close to Moscow, especially Víktor Orbán in Hungary or Peter Pellegrini in Slovakia. This support can be reflected in the meetings and decisions of the European Council.
