We are entering a new year, but the outlook for global economic growth is unlikely to change significantly. According to the IMF’s most recent estimates, Equatorial Guinea will be the only country with available data that will record an economic decline in 2025.
Most countries are expected to register real GDP growth above 2% in 2025. However, most Western European countries will be below this value, with reduced economic growth and losing pace compared to the USA. The European economic lung, Germany, will grow just +0.8%, the French economy +1.1% and the UK economy +1.5%. Portugal is one of the exceptions in this region, with expected growth above 2% (+2.3%). It is worth remembering that these growth values are real values, that is, they exclude the effect of inflation.
The other main economic blocs worldwide will register higher growth, with the USA growing +2.2% and China +4.5%. India is expected to have growth of +6.5%, and, in Africa, several countries will also grow above 6%.
Russia, which remains at war in Ukraine and subject to several economic sanctions, will grow by 1.3%, while the Ukrainian economy grows by 2.5%.
One of the economies that has also been under the spotlight is Argentina, now presided over by Javier Milei. The IMF predicts that Argentina will grow 5%.
Even more challenging times are coming for Europe, with natural repercussions for Portugal in particular, both due to its geographical location and because it is closely witnessing the near stagnation of some of its main and important trading partners.
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