The estimate is that inflation and GDP will be 4.99% and 2.02%, respectively; the data are from the 1st Focus Bulletin released in 2025
Financial market analysts project an increase in the basic interest rate, the Selic, to 15% in 2025. Currently the rate is at 12.25%, defined at the last Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting in December 2024.
The inflation estimate for 2025 is 4.99%. Brazil ended 2024 with an annual IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index 15) rate of . The projections are from the 1st Focus Bulletin of 2025, released this Monday (Jan. 6, 2025) by the BC. Here is the report (PDF – 738 kB).
Market agents also projected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at 2.02%. The latest financial market analysis for 2024 estimated a 3.49% growth in GDP from the previous year.
Market agents also raised the exchange market estimate, analysts raised the dollar price estimate to R$6.00. In 2024, the dollar closed the last session at R$6.18.
For 2026 inflation, analysts projected it to be 4.03%. The GDP, exchange rate and Selic estimates for 2026 are 1.80%, R$5.90 and 12%, respectively.
WHAT IS FOCUS
O It is released every Monday and summarizes since 2000 the statistical projections of economists and market operators consulted by the Central Bank. It is possible to know the institutions that do the most right .
