The polarization in Pernambuco between the governor () and the mayor of Recife, (), is marked by the lack of definition of party and political alliances aiming for 2026.
While the governor will seek re-election, the mayor is tipped to be the opposition’s name in the dispute for state government. Allies believe that, if the election were held today, they would have no doubts about their candidacy, but they say that João Campos still has more than a year to go and that, during this period, the scenario could change.
An indication that the mayor intends to run in the state election was the fact that he chose the (PC do B) as vice-mayor on his ticket in the 2024 elections. The elected vice-mayor could take over the mayor’s office in the event of João Campos’ resignation in April to be a candidate for government.
At the state level, Raquel Lyra’s priority for 2025 is to deliver works and attempt to strengthen the government politically. The internal assessment is that it is necessary to take off this year, including with concrete actions in the metropolitan region of Recife, to overcome the high popularity of João Campos.
The Raquel Lyra administration is also betting that the mayor will have a more forceful opposition in the City Council, which could raise questions about the quality of municipal management, even after a .
At Palácio do Campo das Princesas, the reading is that João Campos had merits to achieve an expressive result, but that the opposition practically omitted its role of monitoring the city hall.
At the state level, the expectation is that the governor will make changes at the top level of management, including political nominations from parties that could be attracted to the arc of alliances targeting the next election, such as MDB and .
The two parties are divided, with wings pro-João Campos and others pro-Raquel. The MDB wants, whether with one or the other, to guarantee the candidacy for re-election of senator Fernando Dueire, who took office in 2023 after the resignation of Jarbas Vasconcelos. União Brasil has the group of federal deputy Mendonça Filho in favor of Raquel and the wing of the former mayor of Petrolina Miguel Coelho allied with the mayor.
Parties that are taken for granted on the governor’s platform are the PSDB itself, to which she is a member, the PP and the , to which Raquel must join in 2025. Vice-governor Priscila Krause (Citizenship) must be a candidate for re-election or Senate.
The expectation is that the transition to the acronym of , Secretary of Government of São Paulo, will be coordinated with the PSDB itself, to keep the tucanos at the governor’s base. The governor must promise the PSDB help to elect federal deputies through the party in the state. The idea planned by the government is to act for both parties, as was the case in the municipal election.
In opposition, João Campos must reconcile the management of Recife with the national presidency of the PSB. He will take command of the party in May. The function will be a showcase to expand its image at national and state level and also aims to strengthen the party by attracting new members.
João Campos has a puzzle in putting together a possible ticket for the 2026 race. Three names are vying for a seat in the Senate in his political group, but only two seats for senator will be at stake. This is because Humberto Costa (PT) is seen as a natural candidate for re-election and is the PT’s priority in the state.
“The party is giving priority to the Senate election. President Lula told me that, for him and for a possible fourth government, a good bench of senators is much more important than many governors”, says Humberto Costa, when ruling out candidacy from the PT to the state government.
Three names can keep the PT member company on the ticket: Silvio Costa Filho (minister of Ports and Airports, from the Republicans), Marília Arraes (former federal deputy, from Solidariedade) and Miguel Coelho, from União Brasil.
One of Lula’s priorities is to elect senators from the PT or allies in the nine states of the Northeast, to oppose Bolsonarism, which has the election of the Senate as a priority. In this scenario, Miguel Coelho, whose father, former senator Fernando Bezerra Coelho, was leader of the Jair Bolsonaro government, is not a name that PT members trust.
The mayor is also working on the possibility of attracting Miguel or Silvio to become vice-president on a possible ticket, promising a leading role in a possible government with a robust secretariat handed over to the vice-president.
The government is watching the dispute and does not rule out a change of side by Miguel Coelho or the PT itself, offering seats for the Senate. The party’s deputies usually vote in favor of Raquel in the Legislative Assembly.
The government supporters are also considering offering positions to PT members in the government, to weaken João Campos’ allies within the party. Even so, those around Raquel know that an alliance with the PT in 2026 is difficult, as the PSB will support Lula nationally.
Close allies believe that João Campos will be a candidate for governor, but emphasize that the factor that could prevent him from running is if Raquel Lyra takes off throughout 2025 and advances in her popularity. Publicly, the PSB does not admit João Campos’ candidacy.
“It is very difficult to predict a year and a half in advance, but it is clear that the PSB is the main opposition party in Pernambuco and that it has a young, national leader like João Campos. But there is no discussion today about who will be the candidate” , says federal deputy Pedro Campos (PSB), brother of the mayor.
As a third way, the PL should launch its own ticket to provide a platform for the Bolsonaro candidate for President. The party will face the challenge of seeking internal unity, as the groups of the former Minister of Tourism and the former mayor of Jaboatão dos Guararapes Anderson Ferreira are broken. After an initial proximity, the acronym moved away from Raquel Lyra in 2024.
X-ray | Pernambuco
- Estimated population (2024): 9.539.029
- Voters (2024): 7.152.871
- Territorial area: 98,1 mil km²
- PIB for Capita (2021): R$ 27.139
- State budget (2024): R$48.8 billion
- State budget for investments (2024): R$2.9 billion
Governor
Senators
- Teresa Leitão (PT) – 2023-2031
- Humberto Costa (PT) – 2019-2027
- Fernando Dueire (MDB) – 2019-2027
Number of city halls by elected parties in 2024
- PSDB: 32
- PSB: 31
- PP: 24
- Republicans: 22
- PSD: 20
Voting by party for mayor in 2024 (1st round)
- PSB: 1.089.446
- PSDB: 452.187
- PSD: 293.352
- Republicans: 266.539
- União Brasil: 251.095
Sources: Government of Pernambuco, IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and TSE (Superior Electoral Court)
