The international tour that the Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia is carrying out these days to meet with the leaders of several countries, including the United States, has raised diverse opinions among political analysts consulted by EFE, who nevertheless agree that, even if Significantly, this political initiative will not resolve the deep crisis that Venezuela is experiencing.
Experts estimate that the diplomatic effort of the former presidential candidate of the majority opposition, grouped in the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), seeks international support before the controversial presidential inauguration of Nicolás Maduro, scheduled for next January 10, but faces structural and geopolitics that seem insurmountable.
The situation in Venezuela is at a critical point where “neither the tour of the respectable Edmundo González nor the ceremony imposed by Nicolás Maduro resolve the drama in Venezuela,” considers Chilean diplomat and professor Fernando Reyes Matta.
The root of the problem, in Reyes Matta’s opinion, is the lack of democratic legitimacy, the result of an electoral process marred by irregularities and the consolidation of an authoritarian regime.
A face-to-face negotiation
“What Venezuela needs to get out of this deep crisis is a face-to-face negotiation where, realistically, both parties determine an agreed transition,” emphasizes the Chilean academic, director of the Center for China Studies at the Andrés Bello University.
However, he recognizes that this transition will not be “easy or brief,” and emphasizes the importance of leadership willing to prioritize the country’s interests over personal ones.
For his part, political scientist and university professor Patricio Navia was more critical when pointing out that González Urrutia’s tour could be symbolic, but ineffective.
“I believe that Edmundo González is going to become a new (Juan) Guaidó,” he comments, referring to the former president of the National Assembly (AN) who, despite obtaining international recognition, did not achieve a tangible change in Venezuelan political power.
According to Navia, the control that Maduro maintains over the Armed Forces and the lack of international will to intervene militarily severely limit the possibilities of change.
“It doesn’t matter if González won the election. Maduro is not going to leave power simply,” says this professor of Liberal Studies at New York University.
The international context also represents an obstacle to González’s aspirations. In this regard, Navia draws attention to the indifference of Donald Trump’s Administration towards an intervention in Venezuela.
Trump “isn’t interested in getting into trouble”
“The United States of (Donald) Trump is not interested in getting into more trouble in the world. If (Nicolás) Maduro is functional to Trump’s protectionist and anti-immigrant agenda, Washington is not going to spend a peso to get him out,” he says.
Even with figures like Marco Rubio – a Republican senator appointed by Trump as future Secretary of State – advocating for a more aggressive policy against governments like Maduro’s, Navia remembers that “the one in charge in Washington is Trump” and that his priority is not to promote democracy, but to attend to economic and strategic interests.
“If Maduro controls illegal immigration and is willing to do energy business with the United States, Venezuela could join the list of dictatorships that Washington tolerates in the world,” he concludes.
“Calibrate expectations”
Meanwhile, Argentine political scientist and jurist Daniel Zovatto refers to the need to “calibrate expectations” regarding Edmundo González’s tour and its impact on the Venezuelan crisis.
Although the opposition has generated hope, Zovatto, a global fellow at the Wilson Center’s Latin American Program, warns that these expectations may not materialize.
“González Urrutia’s ability to prevent Maduro from taking a position is quite limited,” says Zovatto, for whom the conditions do not exist that would allow an immediate change in the political situation.
The opposition faces great limitations, with Edmundo González outside the country and opposition leader María Corina Machado operating underground. This situation reflects a fragility that hinders the ability of opposition leaders to act together, believes the former director of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA).
Regarding international support, Zovatto warns that it is partial and lacks cohesion.
Although some countries, such as the United States, have recognized González Urrutia as president-elect, “there is no truly articulated Latin American coalition” and international support is insufficient to exert significant pressure against the Maduro regime.
And at the internal level, he adds, “the repression exercised by the regime” seriously limits the possibility of massive popular demonstrations that support the opposition, which despite everything is not resigning and whose central objective is to delegitimize Maduro as a “president de facto”.
Zovatto concludes that this strategy seeks to keep alive the hope of a democratic transition in Venezuela, but warns that the change will depend on factors that are still uncertain, such as possible internal fractures in the Armed Forces.
