of the 8th of January, a pivotal event in Brazilian history after the redemocratization of 1985, the polarization that led to the invasion of the headquarters of Power remains firm and strong.
The upheaval of the Bolsonarists who participated in the “Selma party”, apparently a belated attempt to resurrect the coup that failed to prosper at the end of 2022, today serves the electoral strategy of the opposing sides, with selective use.
The process led by , with heavy condemnations for those involved in the attempt so far, had the power to reduce the coup’s fervor. But, apart from the legal debate about the harshness of sentences, the “ad infinitum” extension of investigations risks refueling the fire that heated the cauldron of 8/1.
This leads to electoral considerations that were already present in this year’s municipal election, in which the non-Bolsonarist center-right consolidated itself as the most organic force in the country, but giving breathing space to the purest Bolsonarism and, as Pablo Marçal (PRTB) insinuated in .
The dissatisfactions easily drawn from the pedestrian logic of social networks remain the same: criticism of the excessive power of a wasteful and non-transparent Judiciary, the chant of judicial persecution — in fact, nothing different from what the left did when it was the target. As they say, “tempus fugit”.
It is not by chance, despite Datafolha pointing out that 62% of Brazilians are in the 8/1 class and that half of the country was affected by the coup pointed out by the Federal Police, the heirs of the right continue to ignore the evident coup on that Sunday in 2023.
(Republicanos-SP), governor who is treated as the presumed heir of Bolsonarism and who has already convinced a large part of the business community that he is a moderate, defends amnesty and denies the former boss’s guilt, at least in his speech.
When the shadows of Alvorada whispered exotic ideas and minutes about them were presented to astonished soldiers, perhaps there was no choice. But the inability of Tarcísio, or the more admittedly presidential candidate Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO), to condemn the 8/1 results in a tactic in the name of the vote.
It is an option that, if the economy worsens to the point of threatening Lula’s re-election chances, which are still enormous today, will attract alienation from the president’s party.
This is where the risk of the monopoly of virtue sung by and by its attachments to the left comes in, which will win with the smell of an early campaign this Wednesday (8), both inside and outside the Palácio do Planalto.
Such demonization of the enemy has always served Lula, but it was fatal in moments when only the mystique of his name was not useful, as in (PT) or in the election of (PL).
Back in power, the PT member kept the flame burning, something useful when his main potential opponent does the same thing — the radical antics revealed by the PF and espoused by Bolsonarism only reduce the already very unlikely chances of
The Brazilian left should look at the debacle of and the return of . The USA is not Brazil, and both Bolsonaro and Lula differ greatly from their peers in comparison — the former president than the American; the current one has more support than the Democrat. But mistakes are universal.
In the end, what is debatable in all this is the endless usefulness, from the point of view of democratic construction. More optimistic and interested centrist politicians, of course, say that 2024 proved that moderation and centrão can be a natural path.
It seems early for such a prediction. It is good to remember that the 2013 protests generated the government () before giving birth to Bolsonarism. What will come out of the labor now underway is still unfathomable.
