The catastrophic volcanic eruption of 536 had an unexpected effect on the Roman Empire

Contrary to popular belief, the volcanic eruption was not one of the causes of the collapse of the Eastern Roman Empire. On the contrary, the population and economy grew at this time.

Why empires fall is a question that fascinates many people. But in the search for an answer, imagination can run wild.

In recent decades, several theories suggest that the rise and fall of empires ancient times, such as the Roman Empire, has its origins in climate change or the spread of certain diseases.

Other theories suggest that the fall of empires may be related to natural catastrophes, as would have been the case with the gigantic volcanic eruption that affected the planet in 536 — which would have been .

This eruption created a veil of dust that blocked the sun in certain regions of the world. “It was the beginning of one of the worst times to be alive“, says archaeologist and medieval historian Michael McCormick.

This first eruption, combined with a series of volcanic eruptions in the following decade, will have caused a decrease in global temperatureexplain Lev Cosijnsresearcher at the University of Oxford, and Haggai Olshanetsky, professor of history at the University of Warsaw, in an article in .

Between 541 and 544, there was also the first and most serious documented occurrence of the Justinian plague in the Eastern Roman Empire (also referred to as the Byzantine Empire), in which millions of people died.

One, published in 2005 in the magazine Dumbarton Oaks Papers shows that there is no textual evidence of the effects of the dust veil in the eastern Mediterranean and there is widespread debate about the extent and duration of the Justinianic plague.

But despite this, many academics claim that climate change and the plague outbreak were catastrophic to the Eastern Roman Empire.

A new investigation in November, however, shows that these statements are incorrect. They were made based on isolated finds and small case studies that were designed for the entire Roman Empire.

Using large datasets from vast territories formerly governed by the Roman Empire presents a different picture.

The results reveal that there was no decline in the sixth century, but a new population record and trade in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The authors used micro- and large-scale data from several countries and regions. Microscale data included analysis of small regions and indication of when the decline occurred in that region or site.

Case studies were re-examined, such as the site of the ancient city of Elusa in the northwest of the Negev Desert in present-day Israel. Previous investigations stated that this site had declined by the mid-sixth century.

A reanalysis of carbon 14, a method for checking the age of an object made from organic material, and the ceramic data used to date the site showed this conclusion to be incorrect. The decline only began in the 7th century.

The large-scale data included new databases compiled from archaeological surveys, excavations, and shipwreck finds.

Survey and excavation databases, made up of tens of thousands of sites, were used to map general changes in the size and number of sites in each historical period.

The shipwreck database showed the number of shipwrecks per half century. This database was used to highlight the change in the volume of naval trade.

Evolution of naval trade (150-750)

The results showed that there was a high correlation in the archaeological record for numerous regions, encompassing present-day Israel, Tunisia, Jordan, Cyprus, Türkiye, Egypt, and Greece. There was also a strong correlation between the different types of data.

Both smaller case studies and larger datasets showed that there was no decrease in population or economy in the Roman Empire of the 6th century.

In fact, there appears to have been an increase in prosperity and demographics. The decline occurred in the 7th century, so it cannot be related to sudden climate changes or the plague that occurred more than half a century earlier.

It seems that the Roman Empire entered the 7th century at the height of its power. But the Romans’ miscalculations and their failure against their Persian adversaries led the entire region to a downward spiral. This left both empires weak and allowed the rise of Islam.

This does not mean that there were no changes in climate during this period in some regions of the world. For example, there has been a visible change in material culture and a general decline and abandonment of sites across Scandinavia in the mid-sixth century, where this change in climate was most extensive.

And the current climate crisis is about to cause changes that are much greater than those seen in the past. The sharp departure from historical environmental fluctuations has the power to irreversibly change the world as we know it.