The rise in the dollar and high interest rates brought a perspective of greater caution for Brazilian investors. With the prospect that Selic could hit 15% per year in 2025, safer investments, such as fixed income, become more attractive alternatives.
Analysts interviewed by CNN assess that, given the scenario, the expectation is for a slowdown in the economy.
With the exchange rate around R$6, a lower unemployment rate and high inflationary inertia, the market expects the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the country’s official inflation, to accelerate to almost 5% this year , according to the Focus bulletin, and could close above the inflation target pursued by the Central Bank (BC) for the second consecutive year.
The IPCA-15, the preview of official inflation, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The agribusiness sector must contribute more actively, although it will not be enough to repeat the good performance of 2023.
On the other hand, sectors considered cyclical, such as those linked to credit, monetary policy, retail, automotive, electrical and construction, should be more impacted.
For the North American economy, the expectation is for a positive scenario, both in relation to inflation and unemployment.
Fixed income
For Luciano Costa, chief economist at Monte Bravo, with the high Interbank Deposit Certificate (CDI), allocations in post-fixed assets benefit, as is the case with Bank Deposit Certificates (CDBs).
This happens since the profitability of these assets is linked to inflation. At the last meeting of 2024, the Copom decided to increase interest rates to 12.25% per year and indicated two more increases of 1 percentage point at its next meetings.
“For those who have more appetite, long National Treasury Notes-Series B (NTN-B), considering the long time horizon, could be interesting”, highlighted Costa.
In a report, BTG Pactual said it was eyeing global, five-year fixed income allocations.
“We continue to see the American stock market as the winner not only in the long term, due to the secular theses involving technology, but also in the short term, due to the American exceptionalism of policies focused on ‘American First’”, he assessed.
In terms of real short-term interest, the bank highlights Treasury Financial Bills (LTFs) as a good alternative compared to NTN-Bs with shorter maturities.
“Our recommendation is that a portfolio of public bonds for 2025 should have a greater portion in post-fixed bonds”, he analyzes.
“Regarding the portion indexed to inflation, we believe that the average vertices, such as the NTN-B maturing in 2035, maintain an interesting relationship between risk and return, as, in addition to the IPCA carry and the already significantly attractive real interest rate, a potential decompression of the domestic scenario could bring important capital gains in this allocation”, highlighted the report.
Variable income
For stocks, João Daronco, analyst at Suno Research, sees opportunities in Argentina and the United States.
The S&P Merval index, from Argentina, is in the lead among the 21 financial indicators analyzed by the consultancy Elos Ayta.
The US Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, occupying second and fourth position.
Although the exchange rate is more difficult to price, the Suno analyst believes it will be much higher in around 10 years. Therefore, long-term investments can be a good strategy.
Looking at variable income, the CIO of Empiricus Gestão, João Piccioni, assessed that companies in the export sector and those connected to the American economy can stand out.
“Looking at international markets will become a necessity of the hour to seek returns for portfolios”, he pointed out.
Regarding the Brazilian stock market, Daronco believes that the moment is temporary: “In Brazil there is great pessimism, but it is cyclical, there are better and worse periods. We are already going through the worst”, he pointed out.
According to data compiled by Elos Ayta, in the year 2024, indicating the largest net outflow of resources since 2016.
Despite the rise in interest rates, this is not the only variable considered by global investors when allocating resources in Brazil.
In the opinion of Gabriel Fongaro, senior economist at Julius Baer Brasil, the maintenance of high fiscal deficits and accelerated growth in public debt, in line with an environment of uncertainty and high volatility in the markets, should weigh more heavily.
“The risk that exchange rate depreciation will reach new limits also scares away investors”, added Fongaro.
Furthermore, the lack of public investment, caused by the limited budget, for the CIO of Empiricus Gestão, also makes it difficult to expand productivity gains in other sectors of the economy.
According to a report from XP, despite having a neutral view of the Brazilian stock market, the house highlights that discounted shares and appreciation potential are some of the positive aspects of the domestic market for 2025.
“On the positive side, Brazilian shares remain attractive. The companies’ fundamentals are solid, as indicated by the record levels of cash returns to shareholders”, he pointed out.
“On the other hand, we see risks of downward earnings revisions for 2025 due to higher interest rates. Historically, interest rate increase cycles are not the best times for Brazilian stocks. In this scenario, our positioning continues in names that demonstrate strong cash generation, revenue exposure in dollars and solid profit growth”, he added.
Cryptos
Cryptocurrencies registered a strong rally in 2024, especially bitcoin. The asset performed best since 2020.
According to a report from BTG, with growing institutional and government adoption, bitcoin is positioned to reach new all-time highs this year.
The 0.25% percentage point drop in US interest rates benefits assets considered risky, such as cryptocurrencies and variable income. Consequently, this scenario makes cryptos an attractive option for investors seeking to maximize returns.
Therefore, according to the bank, the sectors that should benefit are Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Real Asset Tokenization (RWA), with emphasis on Ondo Finance.
Additionally, the Solana blockchain plans to launch Firedancer, an infrastructure developed in partnership with Jump Crypto.
Analysts assessed in a report that this strategy should significantly increase the scalability of the network and consolidate its resilience and ability to meet global demands.
“With robust technical and institutional advancements, Solana remains one of the most promising platforms in the crypto market, positioning the SOL token to capture significant value in the coming year as its ecosystem continues to grow and attract new users,” highlighted the BTG.
