“Peace in Ukraine means serious problems for Poland.” This is what Michal Piasecki, deputy editor-in-chief of the Polish newspaper Onet, states, with surprise and forcefulness, in a forceful opinion column. “No one talks about it out loud, but it will be almost a knockout blow for the labor market“he details.
Its assessment comes from a study in which the local market and its tensions due to the conflict in neighboring Ukraine are analyzed, which has made Poland the country with the most refugees from this origin. about 2.3 million at the highest peak of the conflict.
“The differences in the labor market constantly increasing. The demographywhich influences the availability of labor resources, causes an increase in demand for foreign workers“says a labor market expert to the aforementioned media.
“Definitely, It is in Poland’s interest to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Kremlin’s aggression has now lasted 1,046 days. The past few months and weeks have brought hope for peace. Both parties seem to be leaning toward that scenario,” but in terms of work, that drawing “may not be positive.”
“Hay 1.2 million people registered in the ZUS (the registry of foreign workers), of which approximately 800,000 are Ukrainians. One in ten business activities in Poland is started by a foreigner. In the period from January 2022 to June 2024, approximately 60,000 Ukrainian sole proprietorships“says Nadia Winiarska, expert at the Department of Labor of the Lewiatan Confederation. The number speaks for itself.
To the question of whether Ukrainians They will return en masse to their homeland After the conclusion of peace, the analyst responds that “there is a good chance that this will happen, because the vast majority of refugees declare a quick return as long as the war ends.”
Various polls in the Polish press show that many people plan to return home when there is peace, but the level of uncertainty about their plans for the next years: some of them are thinking of traveling to other Western European countriessays Winiarska. The exodus can be home or to the rest of Europe. In any case, a blow for Poland.
At the same time, the expert points out that “we still have the problem of underemployment among immigrants in Poland.” “This especially applies to war migrants from Ukraine. More than 40% of them report such a condition. In their country of origin they worked in a profession that suited them best considering their qualifications“, he states.
This scenario is worrying for the Polish labor market. “A massive departure of Ukrainian citizens it would be very bad news. For many years they have been filling gaps in many sectors of the Polish economy. They often find employment in industry, commerce, services, transport and construction. “From what we have heard, this would be a serious problem for businessmen in these sectors.”
“Gaps in the labor market are constantly increasing. “Demography, which affects the availability of labor resources, results in an increase in demand for foreign workers,” he adds.
Poland is among the main countries that have managed to activate refugees who arrived in Poland after 2022 in the labor market: the employment rate among war migrants from Ukraine is approximately 65% and it is the highest in the OECD, says Winiarska.
He adds that many Ukrainian citizens They have already left the country. “The data indicates that Poland is no longer the country where the majority of refugees from Ukraine have settled, as it was in 2022. It is currently Germany“, reports the Lewiatan Confederation expert.
