Explainer
From to escape Bashar al-Assad for Russia, Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Charaa, previously known by the military name Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, managed keep a part of the country em apparent normalitymarked by fears of minorities about possible religious impositions and the return of refugees to a largely destroyed country.
A month after the deposition of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, the new Islamist-inspired authorities are trying to convey to the country and the rest of the world that they do not pose a threat, but not everyone feels calm.
Since the Syrian dictator’s escape to Russia on December 8, the new de facto leader, Ahmed al-Charaa, formerly known by the military name Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, has managed to keep a part of the countrystarting in its capital, in apparent normalitymarked by fears of minorities about possible religious impositions and the return of refugees to a largely destroyed country.
Here are some essential points from the first month since fall of the Assad dynasty in Syrianow governed by the rebel coalition led by Ahmed alCharaa’s Levant Liberation Organization (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS).
Threat of Islamic radicalism
Al-Charaa has insisted that his radical path belongs to the past, but many of the foundations of the rebel coalition that ousted Assad came from movements linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State.
Despite their inclusive and integrative message in a country with a Sunni majority, but with great ethnic and religious diversity, there have been signs of possible temptations in relation to Islamic law.
Changes to curricula in schools were justified by moving away from the nationalist propaganda of Bashar al-Assad’s Baath party, but in their place came references to God, as well as corrections to verses from the Quran.
Incidents have been observed with Christian minorities and accusations of persecution of the Alawites, who controlled the previous Syrian system, sparking protests.
In response, the transitional government banned the dissemination of “content of a sectarian nature” in the press or on social media that promote discrimination.
Obaida Arnout, spokesperson for the transitional government, argued that the Women’s “biological and physiological nature” made them unsuitable for certain positionse al-Charaa Annalena Baerbock, when he received her in Damascus, but he did not have the same attitude with the French Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Diplomatic ties and sanctions
In the first weeks after the fall of the regime, Damascus became a center of great diplomatic activity and several countries, starting with the Arab but also European neighbors, sent missions to the Syrian capitalwith signs of resuming relations that were interrupted or cooled in the last years of Assad.
The United States raised the reward of 10 million dollars that they offered for the capture of al-Charaa due to its role in the al-Nusra front group, which was linked to al-Qaida, as well as some restrictions (and only for humanitarian purposes) of the sanctions that have been imposed on the country since the brutal repression of Assad to internal protests from 2011 onwards.
The European Union is also analyzing the lifting sanctions against Syria.
The new Syrian leader has used a neutral language about the allies of the previous Syrian President, including Iran and Russia, who abandoned his military positions in the countryand even in relation to Israel, signaling the desire to coexist peacefully with its neighbors, however, great distrust remains.
Persistence of conflicts
Since the fall of the Syrian President’s regime, Kurdish armed groups, which receive support from the United States due to their fight against the Islamic State, have fought, especially in northern Syria, against militias supported by Türkiye.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared on Monday that he was ready to intervene militarily in Syria in case of “risk of fragmentation” of the country.
Syria’s new leader had already stated that he was in negotiations with Kurdish forces “to resolve the crisis in the northeast” of the country, but spoke out against possible autonomy in the region.
This crisis mirrors the difficulty in maintaining alliance unity rebel after the deposition of the regime in the face of its conflicting interests, but the armed factions in Syria, including the HTS, reached an agreement for their dissolution and to be placed under orders from the Ministry of Defense.
Meanwhile, in the south of the country, Israel took advantage of the transition phase in Damascus to advance in relation to the positions it already held in the Golan Heights to overcome the demilitarized line between the two countries, created in 1974, and occupy the Syrian side of Mount Hermón, close to the capital.
Israel claims it has no territorial intentions in Syria and that its actions are intended to prevent weapons from the previous regime from falling into the hands of individuals or groups that could threaten Israeli security.
Southern Syria is a explosive region at the confluence of the Golan Heights occupied by Israel and Lebanon, where Israeli forces fought a war for more than a year against the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, an ally of Assad and Iran, suspended by a fragile ceasefire agreement.
Justice and rights
The new authorities placed the its military and police on the streets of Damascusmany of them coming from Idlib, and who have been praised for their preparation and professionalism.
At the same time, they warn that will not tolerate acts of revenge against employees and supporters of the previous administration, while search operations continue for senior leaders linked to Assad, especially in his Alawite stronghold in the west of the country, and which resulted in hundreds of captures.
It is estimated that more than 100 thousand people disappeared during the repression from the regime to opposition supporters and suspicions are growing about the locations of mass graves in various parts of the country.
At the end of December, the leader of the UN mechanism for investigating serious international crimes visited Syria and highlighted the “mountain of documents” discovered after the fall of the regime, asking the new Government to preserve suspected sites and evidence with a view to holding those responsible for “unimaginable inhumanity” accountable.
Reconstruction and refugees
Devastated by civil war since 2011, it is estimated that Syrian economy has shrunk by 85% since then, facing reconstruction costs estimated at between 250 billion and 400 billion dollars.
Nearly 90% of the population lives below the poverty line and, to counter this Assad legacy, the new authorities plan to increase the nearly 1.25 million public employees by no less than 400% of their current salaries from February onwards.
Large parts of the country and surrounding Damascus are completely destroyed and without power for most of the day, prompting several neighboring countries to activate emergency aid plans and airlifts to assist basic goods.
Between December 8th and last Sunday, around 115 thousand refugees returned to Syriaaccording to the United Nations, mostly from Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, of the total of more than four million who fled the country, where over 660 thousand people remain displaced.
Constitution and elections
Ahmed al-Charaa stated at the end of the year that the process of preparation and drafting of a new Constitution it could take about three years and organize four elections.
“Syria needs a year for citizens to experience radical changes to services,” al-Charaa told broadcaster Al-Arabiya, adding that “any proper election will require a full population census.”
The new authorities foresee the creation of a commission with different social groups to prepare “a national dialogue conference” about the future of the country.
