“Putin’s peace plan is actually a call for Ukraine’s capitulation”. From the headline, forcefully, the thesis of Serhii Kuzan, president of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center (USCC), is clear.
Kuzan, who was advisor to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine between 2022 and 2023 (years of Russian invasion) and as advisor to the secretary of the National Defense and Security Council of Ukraine in 2014 (year of Euromaidan), he reflects on the new time to come, when Speculation is mounting that Ukraine and Russia . And his reading is not optimistic for kyiv.
He maintains that “there is very few signs that the Russian president, , is willing to abandon his goal of subjugating Ukraine.” “Instead, the peace formula currently promoted by Kremlin officials is more likely to pave the way for the next stage of Putin’s campaign to completely erase Ukraine’s independence“he adds.
Since the failed spring 2022 peace talks during the initial phase of the full-scale invasion, recall, Russia has insisted that any peace agreement “must include territorial concessions from kyiv along with Ukrainian neutrality and the comprehensive demilitarization of the country.”. Putin himself explained Russia’s territorial expectations in June 2024, “demanding that kyiv cede four partially occupied Ukrainian provinces, “. This would mean “deliver large amounts of unoccupied Ukrainian territoryincluding the city of Zaporizhzhia, with a population of around three quarters of a million people.”
On numerous occasions, “Putin and his Kremlin colleagues have reaffirmed their conditions, including that Ukraine officially abandons its aspiration to become a NATO member and agree not to enter into military alliances with Western powers.” kyiv is also expected to “accept broad limitations on the size of its armed forces and the types of weapons systems you are allowed to possess,” he says.
“These proposals are not a recipe for a sustainable solution”says Kuzan. On the contrary, he says, “Putin’s peace plan is, in fact, a call for kyiv’s total capitulation”. “Moscow’s demands are deliberately designed to leaving Ukraine internationally isolated and unable to defend itself. If these conditions are imposed on the Ukrainian authorities, there is no doubt that Putin will take advantage of any subsequent pause in hostilities to rearm before resuming the war in the coming years“, he claims.
“If these conditions are imposed on the Ukrainian authorities, there is no doubt that Putin will take advantage of any subsequent pause in hostilities to rearm before resuming the war in the coming years”
Las “true intentions” of Russia can be seen in its “insistence that Ukraine abandon its efforts to join NATO and accept permanent geopolitical neutrality.” Moscow claims that this is essential to safeguard Russian national security, “but Putin’s own actions suggest otherwise,” the author denounces.
When its neighbor announced its plans to join NATO in 2022, Putin made no effort to block the process and announced that Russia “I had no problems” with the accession of Finland. Then he went even further and withdrew most of the troops Russian border with Finland. “It is evident that Putin does not see NATO as a threat to Russia’s securitybut as a possible obstacle to their own ambitions in Ukraine”.
These Russian demands for a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine “should be equally unacceptable in kyiv and among Ukraine’s Western partners.” Accepting the Kremlin’s conditions “would mean leaving millions of Ukrainians thanks to Putinwhile would embolden to Moscow and invite more Russian aggression.” From Chechnya and Georgia to Crimea and Syria, “there is abundant evidence of the last two decades that each successive failure to hold Russia accountable only encourages further escalations,” he recalls.
The West’s “unfortunate efforts” to appease Putin have already led to “to the largest and bloodiest European war since World War II”he reproaches.
“Any further attempts at appeasement will have equally disastrous consequences for the future stability and security of Europe. Indeed, senior European officials now warn that a military confrontation with Moscow is increasingly likely; “German spy chief Bruno Kahl recently predicted that Russia could try to test NATO before the end of the current decade,” he insists.
As Russia pushes for an unarmed and neutral Ukraine, Ukrainian officials are preparing for possible peace talks by prioritizing the need for credible security guarantees. In recent months, the Ukrainian president, , has signaled the country’s willingness to temporarily compromise territorial integrity to move towards a viable peace. At the same time, officials in kyiv have stressed that there is no room for any similar commitment on the issue of security guarantees.
Ukraine’s goal remains accession to NATOwhich in kyiv is considered “the usole guarantee clong-term security and sovereignty of the country.” However, key members of the alliance, including the United States and Germany, remain deeply reluctant to accept Ukraine’s NATO aspirations.
With their country’s path to NATO membership likely to be extremely difficult politically, Ukrainian officials also eThey are exploring the possibility of bilateral security guarantees. In a recent interview, Zelensky said that security guarantees for kyiv to end the Russian war They would only be effective if the United States provides them. He also harshly criticized the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, by which Ukraine handed over the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom which ultimately turned out to be useless.
“Given the diametrically opposed positions of Russia and Ukraine on the issue of NATO membership, it seems certain that Security guarantees will be the most problematic point during any future negotiations to end the war“explains the analyst. “Can Western leaders devise a credible security formula that safeguards Ukraine’s statehood and deters further Russian aggression? Unless they do, Ukraine’s prospects they will be gloomy and the rest of Europe will face years of costly confrontation with a resurgent Russia,” he concludes.
