According to the Ministry of Health, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Tocantins, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná will be affected
The Minister of Health, Nísia Trindade, designed a “probable high incidence” of dengue cases in 2025 in the States of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Holy Spirit, Tocantins, Mato Grosso from the South e Paraná.
According to the ministry, the main factor for this forecast is the continuation of El Niño this year. The phenomenon can intensify climatic conditions favorable to mosquito proliferation Aedes aegyptiresponsible for the transmission of the disease.
Another aggravating factor highlighted is the increase in the circulation of dengue serotype 3, with a higher incidence expected in São Paulo.
“It is a disease that strongly involves environmental, behavioral and social factors. What we have today is a scenario indicating an increase in the mentioned states. Yes, there are projections of a reduction in the number of cases, but this largely depends on this preparation”these.
The statements were made this Thursday (January 9, 2025), during the launch of the COE (Emergency Operations Center), at the Ministry of Health. The New National Contingency Plan was also presented, updated to face dengue outbreaks, chikungunya and zika.
The COE’s actions are to anticipate the seasonal period of dengue, adjust health networks, prevent cases and deaths, reinforce measures in states and municipalities and coordinate responses to critical situations.
The minister attributed the record increase in probable dengue cases in Brazil in 2024 to climate change, global warming and the rainfall regime, in addition to the circulation of new serotypes of the virus. “The expectation is to reduce cases by 2025, but eradicating dengue would be a ‘utopia’”declared Nísia.
DENGUE CASES
Data from the Ministry of Health indicate that Brazil registered, from January 1st to December 28th (date of last update), a total of 6.652.053 probable cases of dengue and 6,022 deaths caused by the disease.
The majority of probable dengue cases (55%) in 2024 were identified among women. In terms of race/color, 41.7% of probable cases were registered among white people; 35% among browns; 5.1% among blacks; 1.1% among yellows; and 0.2% among indigenous people. In 16.9% of cases, the information was not recorded. The age group between 20 and 29 years old concentrated most of the probable cases, followed by those between 30 and 39 years old and between 40 and 49 years old.
The number of deaths in Brazil from dengue in 2024 is greater than the sum of deaths from the disease in the previous 7 years.
The dengue incidence rate, on December 28, was 3,275.9 cases for every 100,000 inhabitants.
In 2025, they are already 10,158 probable casesaccording to data from the Ministry of Health this Thursday (9.Jan). Ten deaths are being investigated.
