Gaza: After all, almost twice as many people died in the first months of war

An independent investigation suggests that Gaza health authorities underestimated the number of deaths due to the war with Israel by around 41%, pointing to 64,000 deaths between October 2023 and June 2024.

The study, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), suggests that the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza, controlled by the Islamist movement Hamas, underestimated the number of deaths due to violence at around 41%.

The researchers estimated 64,260 deaths for traumatic injuries in Gaza between October 7, 2023, the start of the Israeli operation, and June 30, 2024.

“Approximately 3% of Gaza’s population [aproximadamente um em 35 habitantes] died due to violence, with an analysis showing that 59% of these deaths were women, children and elderly“, highlighted this British school, in a statement sent to the Lusa agency.

Ministry does not record all data

To give you an idea, in the report released this Thursday, the Gaza Ministry of Health pointed out that more than 46,000 Palestinians were killed and 109,378 were injured in more than 15 months of war between Israel and Hamas.

According to the LSHTM note, researchers used a statistical method known as “capture-recapture analysis” to estimate the number of deaths from traumatic injuries.

“This method overlays data from multiple sources to arrive at estimates of deaths when not all data is recorded. Sources included records from the Palestinian Ministry of Health hospital morgue, an online survey conducted by interviewees, and obituaries on social media,” LSHTM detailed.

Because you don’t have the capacity

The new study adds that the underreporting significant number of deaths from traumatic injuries highlights the deterioration of Gaza’s health infrastructure and the resulting inability to count the dead amid ongoing violence.

Based on the estimated rate of underreporting, it is believed that the number of deaths from traumatic injuries in October 2024 exceeds 70,000 Palestinians.

To Which is Jamaluddinlead author of LSHTM, these results “highlight the urgent need for interventions to protect civilians and prevent further loss of life.”

“The UN Human Rights Office has already condemned the high number of civilian deaths in the war in Gaza, and our findings suggest that death from traumatic injuries is underreported by around 41%,” he warned.

However, according to LSHTM, the total number of deaths due to the war “will likely be higher, as the analysis does not take into account non-trauma-related deaths caused by interruptions in healthcare, food insecurity, inadequate water and sanitation, and disease outbreaks”.

“Our study demonstrates the usefulness of integrating existing data from alternative sources, rather than relying on any single figure, to compose an estimate of both reported and unreported deaths in contexts affected by armed conflict and extreme violence,” they highlighted. researchers still.