Military alliance is expected to propose an increase from the current target of 2% to around 3% in June, pressured by Russian threats and American demands
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will not accept US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal to increase military spending to 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The alliance, however, should increase the current target of 2%, officials and analysts told the agency
Trump presented the proposal on January 10, 2025, during a press conference that also covered topics such as Greenland, Canada and Panama. The suggestion reinforces his pressure on NATO’s military spending, a recurring theme in his first term.
The 32 member countries are expected to agree a new target during the summit in The Hague in June. The increase is motivated by 2 factors: Trump’s threats not to protect allies who fail to meet goals and fears of a Russian attack after the invasion of Ukraine.
Poland leads military spending among NATO members, with 4.12% of GDP, followed by Estonia, with 3.43%, and the United States, with 3.38%. The overall alliance average is 2.71%. The total budget forecast for 2024 is US$1.474 trillion, with US$968 billion from the USA and US$507 billion from Europe and Canada.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto stated that the 5% target “it would be impossible for almost all nations in the world”. Italy, with 1.5% of GDP in military spending, is among the 8 members that do not reach the current target.
Analysts interpret the 5% proposal as a Trump negotiating strategy. During the 2024 election campaign, he had already suggested a target of 3%, which would represent a 30% increase for most countries.
The war in Ukraine has led many European countries to increase their military spending. However, budget constraints and political resistance make further increases difficult. According to Fenella McGerty, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, even maintaining the current growth of 10% per year, Europe would take a decade to reach 3% of GDP.
France and the Baltic countries defend joint loans from the European Union to finance military spending. The decision depends on elections in Germany, which opposes the proposal.
