The methodology used by the National Council to raise the rate at the last meeting indicates that the rate should reach 1.97% with those estimated by the (Monetary Policy Committee).
The increase last Thursday (9), was justified by the variation in the rate since the Central Bank raised the rate again, in September last year — the basic interest rate went from 10.5% to 12.25% per year. year.
According to internal CNPS estimates, if the Selic rises one point, to 13.25%, at the next Copom meeting, on January 28th and 29th, the consignment ceiling would go to 1.89% at the meeting that the council must hold on January 31st.
If the Selic rises one more point, to 14.25% per year, at the Copom meeting on March 18th to 19th, a scenario considered likely, the payroll ceiling would rise to 1.97% per month.
The hypothesis is based on the premise that Minister Carlos Lupi (Social Security) would guide the increases in these CNPS meetings — last year, he kept the ceiling frozen at 1.66% even with the increase in the basic rate.
Even if it rises to 1.97%, the ceiling would be lower than that of this line of credit due to the freezing of the ceiling while Selic and future interest rates rose over the last year.
In reaction to the increase in the ceiling to 1.80% per month, Febraban stated that the increase did not cover funding costs and cited a drop in the granting of this type of credit to INSS beneficiaries. The secretary of the General Social Security Regime, Adroaldo Portal, disagrees.
“The banks spent many years with a payroll ceiling that was a merely decorative ceiling, because it was so high that it was a non-ceiling and they operated far below that ceiling”, he says. “When we started to impose a stricter ceiling, this provoked competition between banks and competition implies that each bank offers a lower rate than the other to capture the customer.”
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