Alexander Kazakov/EPA
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia
If nothing changes, and in a significant way, in a while Russia will have half the population. Will it be a viable country?
When we talk about Russia, in the last almost three years, we talk about . Will you win, will you lose, will it last?
The second question that probably arises is about the economy: is it resisting the various sanctions imposed by the West and the successive departures of large multinationals from Russian soil?
But there is a third issue that, in the long term, should be more important to Russians than the previous two: demographics
And it’s not a detail.
In fact, it was not the war that caused the problem of lack of… people. Demographic problems were already serious before February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
It’s a “demographic straitjacket”summarizes political economy specialist Nicholas Eberstadt, speaking to .
Russia is not even at normal levels in Europe in terms of urbanization, family standards or education, among other parameters; but it has a very low level of “human capital”.
The average life expectancy for young Russians is at the level of “one fourth world countryis similar to those who live in Haiti”, compares Nicholas Eberstadt.
This low average life expectancy is closely related to the high consumption of alcohol, in addition to the many murders, suicides or car accidents.
A birth rate began to decline noticeably in the last 10 years.
For a country to naturally replenish its population, the birth rate must be at least 2.1 children per woman. This number has not been reached in Russia since… 1988. Almost 40 years ago, therefore. The most recent data, from 2022, shows a rate of just 1.4.
“Time bomb” explained
The Kyiv Independent newspaper indicates that Vladimir Putin already recognized that there is a “imminent demographic time bomb”.
And so the president of Russia has been trying to encourage his compatriots to have more babies. One of those incentives was a direct speech almost a year ago: “If we want to survive as an ethnic group, well, or as ethnic groups living in Russia, there have to be at least two children per family.”
The correct verb is this: “survive”. And the war in Ukraine has contributed a lot to this doubt.
Thousands and thousands of Russian soldiers died (official numbers are not known), many of them at a young age. “But age is not the focal point. The central point is what these deaths and the war in general are doing to society“, warns Harley Balzer, professor of international affairs.
The expert explains: the war greatly increased the number of cases of people with post-traumatic stress, drug addicts, alcoholics and even violent crimes.
In other words: Russia lives “in an environment where people are not eager to have more children”.
There are demographers who indicate that the population of Russia at the end of this century it will be half of the current population. It would go from 146 million inhabitants to just over 70 million. And this scenario will even be real if the war in Ukraine prolongs.
The “paradox”
And then there is another concept put forward by scholars: the “Russia paradox”.
Several developed countries are experiencing a demographic decline; but, even at this stage, they innovate and invest in science, technology, and progress in general. But Russia has been late in these aspects, despite their high level of education.
There is a lot of talent, but there is no commitment to productive knowledge or economic growth.
With all this, with fewer and fewer inhabitants, with little investment in development, Winning the war in Ukraine even becomes a “lesser problem”. This is because, if Russia has the demographic drop that it is expected to have, will have to consider whether it will be a “viable country” decades from now, says Harley Balzer.
And we return to the war: “The impact of the war on Russian society is devastating” – but Ukraine could almost be a long-term detail.
One last indication, equally important: this demographic problem should not in any way affect military plans in Ukraine. There will be military, enough people.
In fact, for the former defense advisor in Moscow, the British John Foreman, Putin “doesn’t care” about the demographic crisis. The president of Russia “is willing to sacrifice absolutely everything” to win the war.
