The atmosphere in the Spanish and European diplomatic elite is gloomy. Confusion spreads because they cannot anticipate whether the bravado and interference of the richest man in the world, Elon Muskagainst Europe, and the imperialist language of President Donald Trump are serious. Or if it is a new exercise in the “madman theory”, intended to soften the other party before the upcoming negotiation on trade and security relations. Does the United States have a real intention to annex Greenland, a Danish territory under the protection of the EU’s collective defense? Is Musk coordinating with Trump when he says that “the United States should free the United Kingdom from its tyrannical government” or what Alternative for Germany is ““the only salvation” of the country?
Trump is known to be obsessed with the competitiveness of German industry. He charges against her because one of her electoral promises is to reindustrialize the United States. Now, the German country is very weakened. It is easy prey if Washington launches a round of tariffs against its main products.
Musk is the other side of the coin of this kind of tandem to divide Europe. And it has many economic interests in the old continent. Take advantage of the situation because it is the first time that the technology sector has entered Washington with such force. Technology companies like X, Meta o Google They complain that Europe overregulates and “censors” them. Musk bought X for $45 billion, and now he is going to exercise the political power he acquired with it against the old continent.
Everything points to a course of confrontation with Europe. Although the European Union and the United States have the most important bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world, and together they represent the 60% of World GDP. Or precisely because of it. Trump wants a bigger piece of the pie. 15 years ago, the size of the European economy exceeded that of the US by 10%; However, in 2022 it was 23% lower, according to an analysis by the magazine Política Exterior. The GDP of the European Union (including the United Kingdom before Brexit) has grown by 21% in this period compared to 72% in the United States.
Europe, on the defensive
last fallBrazil beat X in court. Elon Musk’s company complied with the orders of the country’s Supreme Court to withdraw certain accounts that it considered endangered democracy in the country. The court itself had blocked X nationwide for a month, and millions of users abandoned the platform. Musk, who had attacked the country’s institutions, had to back down and pay the fine.
The same tool is available to Spain and the European Union, protected by the Digital Services Law. Europe has more than 100 million X users, five times more than Brazil. Musk can’t lose that market.
Economic coercion
The same goes for Donald Trump’s trade threats. He assures that he is going to impose unprecedented tariffs on European products, between 10% and 20%. The EU and its market of almost 500 million people are not going to sit idly by.
The “Trump Task Force” put in place by Brussels has already drawn up a list of American products that will be penalized if it is commercially attacked. There are several possible strategies, and one of those contemplated is to tax products that are produced precisely in Trump’s fiefdoms, such as whisky Bourbon manufactured in southern states like Virginia or motorcycles Harley Davidson from the working-class belt of Pennsylvania or Missouri.
The EU will systematically go to the World Trade Organization to denounce any abusive tariffs. WTO resolutions often take years, but they can be won. The organization has just ruled that the tariffs imposed by the United States on the import of Spanish black olives are “incompatible” with its regulations.
In general, Brussels works on a holistic strategy against “economic coercion”, regardless of which country it comes from. This is indicated by the Economic Compass that will be presented on January 15, European sources inform this newspaper. It includes tools to avoid being blackmailed by countries like the United States.
This is a plan closely linked to the Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta reports, which established the future strategy to be followed by the 27. It is necessary to reduce the digital innovation gap and innovate while carrying out competitive decarbonization. And we must work to guarantee the economic security. Discussions are underway on how to strengthen the control of outgoing investments, harmonize the control of incoming investments that may pose a risk and develop a whole series of instruments against economic coercion, the aforementioned sources provide.
Work is being done to promote the internal market and European industry, and calls are made for more assertive use of instruments such as the WTO. And diversify, reaching trade agreements with like-minded countries such as Latin Americans.
That is the Zeitgeist, the spirit of the times in Europe: the aim is no longer just to reduce defense dependence on the United States, but to increase strategic autonomy, also economically.
You can also opt for a sweeter defense strategy. For example, promise to buy American defense systems that the countries of the European Union want to acquire, and increase the import of agricultural products, as long as highly protectionist countries like France allow it.
White glove diplomacy, for now
So far EU leaders are using white gloves with Trump and Musk, despite frontal attacks from both. Brussels wants to collaborate on an agenda that emphasizes that there are common strategic interests, they say.
The leaders of some countries are indeed giving it back to the American tandem. The first was Emmanuel Macron, who asked Europe to wake up to the interference of the United States. He accused Musk of nurturing a “reactionary international” on his social network X. The same expression was later repeated by the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, at an event against the Franco dictatorship.
Behind the scenes, the Spanish diplomacy and European Union point out, however, that we should not overreact, but rather respond with actions and not words. Because at the end of the day, Trump is an old acquaintance. In his first term, he failed to comply with most of the threats he made. Now it is another Trump, yes, with more popular support and in Congress and with a squire, Musk, with almost unlimited economic resources.
