According to estimates in the bulletin released this Monday (13), the increase in prices of goods and services for 2026 is 4.03%; experts say that the economic scenario will be challenging with the dollar exchange rate remaining at R$6 during the biennium
O released this Monday (13), raised concerns about the Brazilian economy by pointing out that the financial market forecast for this year’s inflation rose to 5%, slightly above the 4.99% recorded the previous week. The Selic rate, currently at 15% per year, is expected to reduce to 12% in 2026, although it will still remain at a high level. Projected inflation for 2026 is 4.03%, while economic growth for 2025 is estimated at 2.02%. Furthermore, the dollar exchange rate is expected to remain at R$6 for both 2025 and 2026, consolidating a challenging economic scenario.
The current scenario, with inflation at 5%, Selic at 15% and the dollar at R$6, expects economic growth of 2%. The situation requires strategic attention from the economic team, which faces the risk of undermining investor confidence and popular perception of economic management. According to social scientist Deysi Cioccari, the dilemma between macroeconomic stability, economic growth and inflation control is recurrent in Brazilian history, but its resolution requires firm and transparent political decisions, which cannot be postponed without cost.
With high interest rates and pressure for structural reforms, the increase in projected inflation highlights Brazil’s economic fragility. On the other hand, Cristiano Beraldo points out that the country is attractive for speculators, but challenging for entrepreneurs looking to expand their businesses. The rise in the dollar puts pressure on inflation, and Petrobras may be forced to pass on increases in fuel prices, impacting the entire consumption chain.
*With information from Alan Ghani, Deysi Cioccari and Cristiano Beraldo
*Report produced with the help of AI
