Two North Korean soldiers were captured in Kursk. They had fake Russian identification documents, they didn’t know they were fighting in a war and one of them says he wants to stay in Ukraine. Experts admit that the North Koreans were sent to Russia to prepare for something bigger, which goes beyond the borders of Europe
North Korean soldiers who are fighting in Kursk are being used “as cannon fodder” and to prepare an “eventual invasion of South Korea”, argue experts interviewed by CNN Portugal, in an analysis of the situation in that Russian region.
The two captured soldiers had false Russian identification documents and say they did not know they were fighting. “They told them it was just training,” says a translator from the Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence services, who are interrogating the two fighters. One of them stated that, before being captured, he had been without eating or drinking water for five days.
Lieutenant General Marco Serronha has no doubt that these soldiers – around 11 thousand, according to the Ukrainian security services – “are essentially being used as cannon fodder”. Since Pyongyang “does not have problems with military personnel – it has an army of almost 1.5 million people – it is not because 15 or 20 thousand are lost there, for the leadership of North Korea it is not serious, as we know”, adds the military expert.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky guarantees that, like these two soldiers, “many more” will be captured. “It is a matter of time before our men are able to capture more. And no one in the world should have any doubt that the Russian army depends on military assistance from North Korea. Putin started three years ago with ultimatums to NATO and attempts to rewrite history, and now he cannot do without military help from Pyongyang.”
Tiago André Lopes, a specialist in international relations, looks at this situation with great reluctance and admits that we may be facing a “propaganda and charm campaign” on the part of the Ukrainian authorities, faced with a lack of support from Europe and the USA. “Zelensky’s problem at the moment is that the issue is falling politically”, recalling the Slovak Prime Minister’s increasingly assertive position in relation to this conflict. “Robert Fico is increasingly vocal against Ukraine than Viktor Orbán,” he emphasizes, comparing him with the president of Hungary who until very recently seemed isolated in the EU in his resistance to supporting Kiev. But that’s not all, adds the expert: in Croatia, polls suggest the re-election of President Zoran Milanović, “who is against aid to Ukraine”; in Romania, everything indicates that “the elections in May will be even more dramatic than those that were cancelled, and the chance of the far-right candidate winning now is much greater”; and “the chance of the far right growing in Bulgaria is very significant”, in addition to the re-election of Donald Trump, who “has already given every indication that he will slow down aid” from the US to Ukraine.
In short, “the entire political scenario has changed”, which is why, according to Tiago André Lopes, “it is in Ukraine’s interest to create something that causes alarm or some fear.”
The international relations expert does not exclude that this capture is, after all, nothing more than an act on the part of Ukraine, pointing out that one of the captured North Korean soldiers had in his possession a Russian military identity card that was “issued in the name of someone else”, a 26-year-old young man from the Russian region of Tuva, which borders Mongolia, where the population has Asian features.
Tiago André Lopes recalls that last December Ukraine had already announced the capture of a North Korean soldier who ended up dying shortly afterwards, according to the South Korean secret services. “Now, now is the first time [que capturaram soldados norte-coreanos]so in December they lied”, suggests the expert, who admits that it causes him “a lot of confusion” that there is no reaction from North Korea on this issue, in addition to observing “strange things” in the videos released by the Ukrainian presidency, from the outset the “choreographed responses” of North Korean soldiers in response to the Ukrainians, such as the one in which one of them admits to wanting to “live in Ukraine”, refusing to return to Pyongyang.
North Koreans in Kursk may actually be training – but to “invade” their neighbors
South Korea confirmed on Sunday the capture of the two North Korean soldiers in Kursk. According to the National Information Service (NIS) in Seoul, 300 North Korean soldiers have already been killed in combat against Ukraine and 2,700 have been injured. South Korean intelligence attributes the “massive casualties” of North Korean soldiers to their “lack of understanding of modern warfare,” including their “useless” act of firing at long-range drones.
“It is an army that has no experience, that is not deployed, that has not trained”, observes Tiago André Lopes, who believes that the mobilization of around 11 thousand North Korean soldiers to the Russian region of Kursk could be preparation for something more. “Going to Kursk is a kind of flexing your muscles and stretching your legs” for an eventual invasion of South Korea. “They are spinning up the war machine and eventually they will promote some of these officers who are now on the ground in Kursk – those who survive, obviously – to the level of their rank because they have field experience. It is a type of training in a real situation, which is relevant for those who eventually want to launch an incursion against their neighbor to the South”, he suggests.
Lieutenant General Marco Serronha also believes that “there is an interest” from Pyongyang behind this mobilization: “There is an interest on the part of North Korea to expose not only its soldiers but also its military leadership to modern warfare and new equipment” , theorizes, pointing out that North Korean soldiers “are being very susceptible to drone attacks because they are not trained for it.”
“This exposure to new technological configurations in this war will help North Korea to better prepare for an eventual invasion of South Korea”, argues the military expert, who believes that this mobilization did not happen without “counterparts” for Korea North, such as supplying Russian military technologies to Pyongyang.
Experts remember that Russia and North Korea ratified a mutual defense agreement last November, which provides for reciprocal “immediate military assistance” in the event of an attack on one of the two. Recalling that Ukraine has received military aid from NATO countries over the last three years, Tiago André Lopes says he cannot understand “why some can receive help and others cannot”.
What is certain is that both Moscow and Pyongyang deny the deployment of North Korean soldiers to the Kursk region. As the mutual defense agreement is public, Lieutenant General Marco Serronha wonders why they are “hiding” this mobilization, anticipating a response: “I think it is more to not give the Russian side the idea that there is a need for manpower military to continue the war” without “involving the Russian middle class in a possible mobilization” for this purpose.
“And I am perfectly convinced that, more than the 10 or 12 thousand North Koreans [que estão em Kursk]more may appear over the months, if the war continues”, says Lieutenant General Marco Serronha.
