The lack of definition of Bolsonarism for 2026, with the ineligibility of () and the multiplication of pre-candidacies, is seen by allies of () as favorable for the government camp, while doubts persist about the president’s search for re-election or the attempt to make a successor.
Supporters of the PT member assess that the disorganization of the right could lead to fragmentation in the election, in addition to highlighting Bolsonaro’s loss of control over the segment. , but the decision will depend on factors such as health and desire to compete.
The list of those interested in Bolsonaro’s electoral estate, which is, has been reinforced in recent days with those of the influencer () and the singer (without a party) who are pre-candidates for the Presidency.
The group of candidates already included the governors (Republicanos-SP), (-GO) —the only one who openly considers himself a presidential candidate—, (Novo-MG), . (PSD-PR) and (-RS). There is a call for that.
A point that is on its way to reaching consensus, according to influential figures from the political universe heard by the Sheet —both in the government and in the opposition—, is that the economy will be decisive for Lula’s competitiveness. More than official indices, it will be weighted to .
The movements on the right and center-right occur under the analysis that the possibility of Bolsonaro reversing his judicial situation in time for the next election is remote. At the same time, it is understood that he is an important electoral leader, as he retains political capital.
that he will repeat Lula’s practice in 2018 of registering his candidacy as head of the ticket and, with the Electoral Court’s refusal, being replaced by his vice president at the time (PT). In this case, the name listed for vice is that of the son, federal deputy for PL.
Bolsonaro’s resistance to anointing a successor prolongs the uncertainties. Tarcísio is seen as a natural option, but only leaves open the possibility of running for Planalto in 2030, when he would be at the end of his second term.
That of the former president, who was part of the Federal Police in the investigation into the plot to carry out a coup d’état in the country in 2022, is today mixed with the clan’s electoral steps.
Bolsonaro hesitates to nominate a candidate of his preference in order to protect his political strength, in an effort to mobilize public opinion and arm himself for clashes in the (Supreme Federal Court).
The former president’s opponents see the articulations of right-wing leaders as attempts to fill the vacuum left by him, but they speculate that the number of competitors should decrease until next year.
The eventual entry of Gusttavo Lima, for example, is viewed with skepticism. The reading is that the singer is looking for the spotlight to boost a candidacy for the Senate, but would hardly have the approval of a relevant party for an adventure targeting the Planalto. The artist is close to Caiado.
Marçal’s intentions are now taken more seriously, due to the potential he demonstrated in the election for Mayor of , attracting Bolsonaro supporters and almost reaching the second round. The actions of which he is the target and which may render him ineligible are, however, .
Bolsonaro’s self-preservation strategy has the potential to disintegrate the pre-candidates and parties that orbit his name and result in a split. In the projected scenario, allies would hesitate to embark on the former president’s plan to force his candidacy, which could drag on until close to the election.
The schedule for governors is different, as, for them, there is a legal requirement to resign from office by April 2026 to run for the national election. In the case of those who are in their second term and cannot seek re-election, waiting for a decision from the former president is even less likely.
The governor of Goiás is seen as the most convinced in relation to the candidacy and someone unwilling to back down. Despite the national aspiration, Caiado is considered , which can be an obstacle. The same is said about Zema, Ratinho and Leite.
In the government sector, the alternatives cited in the event of the president’s absence from the polls are ministers Fernando Haddad (Finance), (Education) and (Civil House). Rumors have also returned to circulate about , who left the government for the STF, but those around the minister rule out the hypothesis that he will resign from his position to return to party politics.
Speaking confidentially, the president of a party in the center states that the existence of more right-wing candidates would be bad because it would complicate alliances in the second round.
The political scientist says that a grouping in the second stage would strengthen the common project, by adding together the electoral bases of each candidate.
“At first, the dispersion associated with the weakening of the right-wing leader in the country is beneficial for the Lulista camp, as it ‘disorganizes’ the action of opposition forces and makes it more difficult to produce convergences between these actors”, he states, adding that the Lula’s candidacy in 2026 “depends less on his physical health than on the health of the Brazilian economy”.
