Analysis points out that the president’s trade policies could impact the economy in Latin America, including Brazil
The fiscal situation of Latin American countries and the trade policies of the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump (Republican), could negatively affect investments in the region, including Brazil, according to an analysis released by manager Janus Henderson this Monday (13.jan.2025).
Mario Aguilar, senior portfolio strategist at Janus Henderson, warns that fiscal deficits are likely to impact local currencies, which will affect investment returns in Latin American countries. He highlights that, in many cases, these investments are linked to imported products priced in dollars.
According to Aguilar, fiscal deficits require adjustments in macroeconomic policy, such as increasing interest rates to control inflation, which can harm economic growth. In the short term, he points out that Brazil could benefit from a weaker real, while Argentina should face difficulties with a stronger currency, due to the convergence of the official exchange rate with the parallel one.
The analyst sees Brazil and Chile as interesting markets for medium and long-term investments, but warns that this depends on the implementation of effective fiscal policies and respect for private capital, which could stimulate economic growth.
Aguilar also highlights that, at the moment, sectors such as agribusiness and mining are promising due to the devaluation of local currencies and the increase in demand for commodities. He also sees investment opportunities in infrastructure and energy, with emphasis on the need to explore new energy sources, such as biogas, solar and wind, in addition to oil and gas, sectors that could benefit in the coming years.
With information from Brazil
