Does ceasefire in Gaza bring peace? “It’s not quite like that” – and why now

Hamas has already accepted the project. Three reasons on Israel’s side: “Almost no one talks, but Iran is a big factor.”

O Hamas accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the range Gaza and the release of dozens of hostages, said sources linked to the negotiations, cited by the news agency (AP).

An Israeli official said that progress had been made, but that details are being finished.

The AP obtained a copy of the proposed agreement and an Egyptian official and a Hamas official confirmed its authenticity. The plan would have to be submitted to the Israeli Cabinet for final approval. All three officials spoke on condition of anonymity.

The latest project stipulates, in a first phase, the total withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Philadelphia Corridor – the border between the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula, in Egypt – as well as the “partial” withdrawal from different points of the Palestinian enclave.

During this period, Israeli forces will be authorized to maintain “checkpoints” in Gaza, while on the last day of the third phase, occupation forces must carry out “a total withdrawal” do enclave.

The United States, Egypt and Qatar have spent the last year trying to mediate an end to the 15-month war and secure the release of dozens of hostages captured in the Hamas attack, which took place on October 7, 2023. Around 100 Israelis are still trapped in Gaza and the military believes that at least a third of them are dead.

The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, presented this Tuesday a plan for the reconstruction and governance of Gaza in the post-war period.

Blinken praised the proposal and highlighted the importance of ensuring its implementation after the government of the current president, Democrat Joe Biden, ceases to function, in a speech given at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank.

“We have a responsibility to ensure that the strategic gains of the last 15 months endure and serve as a foundation for a better future,” declared Blinken.

According to the head of United States diplomacy, the plan, which he has spoken about in broad strokes several times, envisages that the Palestinian Authority invite “international partners” to create an interim government authority to manage essential services and supervise the territory, at the same time time that other partners, notably Arab states, would provide forces for an interim security mission.

But…

… ceasefire in Gaza is not necessarily synonymous with peace in the region. At least, not immediate peace.

António José Telo that the ceasefire agreement is really getting closer. But peace in Gaza? “It’s not quite like that. The implementation of the agreement will be long, will have several phases and, in any of the phases, can be interrupted if something unexpected happens. AND We’ve seen this happen several times in the Middle East“.

The professor at the Military Academy points to three factors essential – on Israel’s side – for the ceasefire be agreed nowif confirmed.

The first, “and the most important thing that almost no one talks about”, is the Iran: it is close to having a nuclear arsenal, “in fact, it possibly already has nuclear weapons and has already tested them”. Therefore, “this is the big factor: this is the last moment when something can be done to prevent Iran from having a nuclear arsenal in the area. Everything that happens in Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria, in one way or another revolves around Iran and has Iran behind it.”

The second factor is the change of president in the USA. Donald Trump will take office “and anything that is done in relation to Iran’s nuclear arsenal will have to be done in conjunction with the USA”, explained the expert, on . In fact, officials have expressed growing optimism that they can complete a deal before Trump’s inauguration.

The third reason is the internal situation in Israel: achieving the release of Israeli hostages could “ease” the scenario – shaky – for the prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. But it could also lead to the departure of two ministers from his Government, who are against an agreement.