A year of strong upheavals, perhaps upheavals in global rivalries, will be 2025 as its war enters its fourth year in February, while it remains on a tightrope with a fragile truce in Lebanon, a balance of terror between and and with open her wound.
These wars highlighted the importance of sea lanes in geopolitical balances, war conflicts and economic pressures in an era of rapid change and uncertainty. The undeclared “wars of the sea”, the direct and indirect confrontations for the control of the sea lanes, as well as the energy wealth hidden on the seabed, are just as decisive as those on land and may constitute the most important field of competition between the powerful, from and from the Arctic to the Pacific Ocean.
On Christmas Day, the submarine cable in the Baltic that supplied electricity to Estonia was cut. A month earlier, two underwater optical fiber cables connecting Sweden to Lithuania and Finland to Germany had been cut, again in the Baltic.
The Finns stopped a Russian tanker and the Swedes a Chinese one, and in both cases authorities say there are strong indications of sabotage by the ships that dragged their anchors to the seabed to cut the cables. As the investigation into the two cases continues, Western security agencies estimate that incidents of this type are part of a Russian hybrid war on the seabed that will intensify in the coming months and may not be limited to the Baltic.
Baltic Sea: A battle that began in 2022
The seabed war did not start until two months ago in the Baltic. It began almost two and a half years ago, in September 2022, with the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines carrying Russian to Germany, and is part of the wider geopolitical rivalries that are flaring up across the globe.
With the standoff with Russia escalating dangerously on Ukrainian soil, alongside military training camps on NATO’s northeastern flank, ships from the US Sixth Fleet and British Royal Navy vessels last year conducted exercises north of the Scandinavian coast, as far as the Barents Sea , for the first time since the Cold War.
Any de-escalation of the Ukrainian conflict within the year with some sort of rapprochement (and sharing) between the US and Russia would not solve the issue of broader NATO military pressure and the strategic encirclement of Russia, which has adapted its economy to war and could to use hybrid attacks as a counterweight in Europe and beyond.
Networks, cables and conduits: Difficult to maintain, expensive to repair
Hybrid attacks against underwater infrastructure, such as communication cables and natural gas and oil pipelines, pose a serious threat not only to the countries directly involved but also to the global economy, consumers of products and services.
What would it mean for energy prices e.g. a sabotage on a pipeline carrying natural gas from Russia to the Balkans or an oil or gas pipeline in the North Sea, the Mediterranean or the Gulf of Mexico?
Guarding the targets is difficult and expensive, it requires a very broad deterrence and immediate reaction plan which is already being developed by NATO (a UN expert council is moving in the same direction), but there are no magic solutions to incidents that could appear as “accidents ».
More than 1.4 million kilometers of telecommunications cables are spread over the seas and oceans of the planet forming the backbone of the global Internet and carrying over 95% of digital data. The total length of 575 lines is equal to the diameter of the sun.
The cables are extremely thin (often around two centimeters in diameter), have a reinforced casing and sometimes pass through protective trenches, but remain vulnerable to extreme events such as hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, underwater landslides. On average, 100-150 such cables are cut per year, in 70%-80% of cases by human activities, such as anchors or nets and not at great depths (200-300 meters).
The lighter the cables, the easier they are to be retrieved from the seabed and repaired by special floating crews that are dispersed in strategic locations, ready to intervene to repair the damage.
More difficult and time-consuming is the repair of electrical cables, even more difficult and expensive to repair damage to conductors. Despite the possibility of using satellites to fill gaps in digital communications, a generalization of hybrid attacks and mutual retaliation on cables and pipelines would plunge the planet into chaos.
Russian Oil: Phantom Fleet Exports Despite Sanctions
Another area of contention is linked to Western sanctions on the Russian energy sector that are aimed at causing economic suffocation in Russia. The package of measures includes sanctions on companies that do business with the Russians, but the Kremlin has set up a “ghost fleet” of around 600 ships, mostly of older types, to continue oil and gas exports and the transportation of goods. dual use, e.g. components that can be used in household appliances but also in weapon systems, such as drones.
More than 280 ships of this “ghost fleet” crossed the Baltic in four months last year, from May to August, according to Western sources. This “fleet” is said to include the two tankers that caused the serious damage to the cables in the Baltic. A similar system of “ghost ships” had been used to circumvent its embargo on . However, in the case of Russia, there is no system of similar sanctions from the UN, as Russia and China, as permanent members of the Security Council, block the draft resolutions.
With 15 packages of sanctions against companies and individuals, the EU has put on the list dozens of tankers and cargo ships, banning them from docking in Europe. The measures have not hindered Russia’s tightening of military cooperation with China and North Korea (which also make extensive use of land routes and pipelines on the Russian-Russian border), nor Moscow’s cooperation with economies “hungry” for cheap oil .
Red Sea – Persian Gulf: Strategic Passages and the Houthi Threat
Asymmetric rebel attacks against merchant shipping in the Red Sea are the most characteristic blockade in force on one of the most strategic sea lanes, despite the presence of an international naval force to protect ships and sailors (European Operation Shields and US Operation Guardian Welfare).
With missiles and drones, pro-Iranian rebels have halved shipping in the , forcing increases in insurance premiums and freight rates and forcing shipping giants to circumnavigate Africa to keep supplying markets with fuel, raw materials and products. A collateral casualty of this war was the anchor damage to a large merchant ship that was hit by the Houthis last February.
The ship was abandoned by the crew and drifted by the currents before sinking. Its anchor cut three underwater telecommunications cables that accounted for a quarter of the data flow from Europe to Asia.
The Houthis claim to be targeting ships serving Israeli interests and are continuing their attacks despite being heavily battered by US, British and . The crisis could be eased if the war in Gaza ended and the truce in Lebanon held, but the threat will remain as long as the problem remains open in Yemen itself.
Further escalation between Israel and the involvement of the US could also lead to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which tankers pass which cover more than a fifth of the world’s needs for oil and oil products.
Any targeting of the Gulf emirates, mining of the Straits of Hormuz, or Iranian attacks on tankers with missiles and drones would send the price of oil skyrocketing, causing chain reactions in the global economy.
Pacific: China’s movements on an economic level as well
Beijing’s power projection took on a new dimension last fall with the simultaneous participation of two Chinese aircraft carriers in naval exercises in the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. A third Chinese aircraft carrier was launched in 2022, is still undergoing preparation and testing, and has not yet officially joined the fleet.
A heated episode between China and , involving the US, would cause a suffocation of trade and maritime transport in East Asia. Further south, in the South China Sea, Beijing is building artificial island-fortresses on coral reefs near the mineral-rich Spratly Islands, which are also claimed by the Philippines.
As the mobility of the Chinese navy and air force increases, so do the exercises of the Americans and their allies in the region. At the same time, China is escalating its “friendly attack” on small Pacific island nations with investments, development aid and defense cooperation plans that undermine corresponding moves by the US and Australia.
Its military rise, political turmoil in South Korea and North Korea’s nuclear arsenal create a complex backdrop of geopolitical challenges at a time when the US makes no secret of its view of China as its strongest global competitor, both economically and military level.
Arctic: Standstill after Trump’s declarations
Within this context, his declarations are not just random which reveal American expansionist plans, even in Canada. Beyond the explosive character of Trump, who is preparing to return on January 20 to the White House, it is clear that maintaining American hegemony on the planet does not only go through the control of territories and rich subsoil, but also through the control of strategic sea lanes.
In this light, Greenland (which belongs to Denmark) and Canada are the instruments for the conquest of the Arctic (and the North Pole) by the US, which currently has a say in the exploitation of the region only through Alaska under international treaties . At the same time, threats to “retake” the Panama Canal, even with marines, reveal Washington’s determination to keep Central America under tight control in the face of China’s penetration of the US’s soft underbelly.
For now, the international community is in a wait-and-see attitude. If the leader of another country had made similar claims, if another government had issued threats of military invasion and annexation of territories, the international reactions would have been very strong. The fact that the threats come from Trump does not diminish their significance, nor does it limit them to the level of graphicness.
On the contrary, the arrogance with which the US president-elect treats even the NATO allies reveals a dangerous combination of isolationism and expansionism. After all, Trump, who sees the planet as a large plot of land and treats international law with disdain, could not exclude from his own power game the seas that cover two-thirds of the Earth’s surface.
