LONDON (Reuters) – Armed conflict is the main risk in 2025, according to a World Economic Forum survey released on Wednesday, a reminder of deepening global fragmentation as government and business leaders attend the annual Davos meeting next week.
Nearly one in four of more than 900 experts surveyed across academic, business and policymaking sectors ranked conflicts, including wars and terrorism, as the most serious risk to economic growth in the coming year.
Extreme weather, the biggest concern in 2024, was the second biggest danger cited.
“In a world marked by deepening divisions and cascading risks, global leaders have a choice: foster collaboration and resilience or confront worsening instability,” Forum Managing Director Mirek Dusek said in a statement accompanying the report.
“The stakes have never been higher.”
The Forum begins on January 20th and Donald Trump, who will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on the same day and has promised to end the war in Ukraine, will address the meeting virtually on January 23rd.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the meeting and give a speech on January 21, according to organizers.
Among other global leaders who will participate in the meeting are European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Vice Prime Minister Ding Xuexiang.
Syria, the “terrible humanitarian situation in Gaza” and the possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will be the focus of the meeting, according to the president and CEO of the Forum, Borge Brende.
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Negotiators were defining the final details of a possible ceasefire in Gaza on Wednesday, after marathon talks in Qatar.
The threat of disinformation was ranked as the most serious global risk over the next two years, according to the survey, the same as 2024.
Over a 10-year horizon, environmental threats dominated experts’ concerns about risks, according to the survey. Extreme weather was the top long-term global risk, followed by biodiversity loss, critical changes to Earth systems, and natural resource shortages.
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Last year, global temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era for the first time, bringing the world closer to violating the commitment made by governments in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
A global risk is defined by research as a condition that would negatively affect a significant proportion of global GDP, population, or natural resources. Experts were interviewed in September and October.
The majority of respondents, 64%, expect the persistence of a multipolar and fragmented global order.
