The long-standing “taboo” in the domestic Turkish political scene, regarding the possibility of his re-candidacy in the presidential elections of 2028, has been broken.” During a conference of the local organization of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the province of Sanliurfa, in the Southeast, last Friday, the country’s most popular singer, Ibrahim Tatlises, asked the Turkish president if he would be “present in the coming term for the presidency ». Erdoğan answered him, with all meaning: “If it will be you, I will be.”
Erdogan against the Turkish Constitution
that, against the Turkish Constitution, the Turkish president intends to claim the presidency for the fourth time. A day later, the “baton” was taken by the representative of the ruling party, Omer Celik, stating that the possibility of the Turkish president seeking a fourth term “is on our agenda”, on one condition: “that our people want it”.
Rise in polls for Erdogan
Meanwhile, polls show a rise in the ruling party’s ratings and a decline in the opposition, alongside the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and Ankara’s upgraded role in the country’s new era.
Erdogan’s consecutive terms
Erdogan is serving his final term under the Turkish Constitution unless there is a constitutional amendment or parliament calls early elections. He was first elected president in 2014 and re-elected in 2018 and 2023 after the constitutional amendments promoted by the AKP together with Devlet Bakhceli’s extreme Nationalist Action Party (MHP) turned the government into a presidential one. It is no coincidence that Celik commented that “we will find a formula” to overcome the constitutional hurdle.
Constitutional revision or early elections
In any case, the “shells” of the government partners do not come out. A possible constitutional amendment can be put to a referendum if 360 MPs support it (out of a total of 600). 360 MP votes are also required to call early elections. Majorities that the AKP alliance with the MHP does not have. Hence Bakhceli’s unexpected warm handshake with politicians of the pro-Kurdish party DEM (formerly HDP) in the seats of the Turkish National Assembly, but also the discussion that opened about a possible amnesty for the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan.
Friendship attacks on the Kurds
“It is clear that the Turkish president needs the Kurds and the DEM votes. His late zeal for the solution of the Kurdish question, the great debate about the release of Öcalan, but also the pogrom he has recently unleashed against mayors of the DEM are part of his tactics for the successful outcome of the debate that has just begun for the claim of fourth term”, Turkish analyst Erkin Encan emphasizes to Vima.
“Although the DEM has a somewhat ‘secular’ ideology, the majority of its voters are Muslim. Moreover, the southeastern region of Turkey is among those where AKP and DEM receive the most votes. Therefore, a successful deal for the AKP could cause vote shifts from the DEM to the ruling party.” He emphasizes that “there is no alternative alliance for the Turkish president other than the one he claims from the Kurds”.
Nevertheless, Mr. Encan is unsure “if Erdogan will manage to make any deal with the Kurds as successful as the previous process of normalizing the exemption” in order to run again. “Erdogan’s policy on the unresolved Kurdish, despite the latest friendly attacks, is based on the oppression and persecution of the Kurdish element,” he explains. If, however, the Turkish president “succeeds in creating an environment of improved relations between Turkey and the US and an easing of tensions that are plaguing the Turkish economy, he may have a chance.”
The one-way Erdogan
Even the recent arrests of pro-Kurdish DEM mayors should be seen “as part of the tough negotiations”, continues Mr. Enjan. “In the attempted new normalization process, the government is pursuing a strategy of separating the DEM party from the PKK. And arrests members of the DEM party allegedly linked to the “terrorist organization”. The message of the Turkish president, as you understand, is one: “You have no other way out, it’s one way, you have to make an agreement with me.”
