On a day full of catalysts, oil futures contracts closed sharply higher this Wednesday (15), with OPEC forecasting an increase in demand, a reduction in American stocks and still under the effect of US sanctions on Russia. These factors overlapped with the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), WTI oil for March closed up 3.06% (US$2.34), at US$78.71 per barrel, while Brent for the same month, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), advanced 2.64% (US$ 2.11), to US$ 82.03 a barrel.
Shortly before the closing, the mediators of the negotiations between Israel and Hamas (Israel, Qatar and Egypt) confirmed the closing of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. The truce officially begins next Sunday, the 19th.
Israel could ease pressure on Gaza to strengthen its ties with the US and increase pressure on Iran – which is a major oil exporter. As such, geopolitical tensions remain high on the Russian and Middle Eastern fronts, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
The announcement slightly slowed oil gains, but over time the pace of gains began to gain momentum again. Tensions between the US and Russia continue to take their toll.
This Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested that Russia may take retaliatory action in response to recent American sanctions targeting its energy sector. On radar, BP and the Iraqi government have agreed to most of the commercial terms needed to revitalize the Kirkuk oil field.
Also in focus, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for growth in global demand and supply for the commodity this year.
Furthermore, the International Energy Agency (IEA) still expects strong growth in oil demand in 2025 due to lower prices and a better economic outlook in developed countries.
In the USA, oil stocks fell by 1.962 million barrels, reported the Department of Energy (DoE).
Analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal predicted a smaller drop of 1.1 million barrels. In any case, Capital Economics continues with its below-consensus forecast that Brent will fall to $70 by the end of 2025 and $60 by the end of 2026.
