The Kremlin’s recent statements on the annexation of Belarus poses several risks for NATO, Ukraine and the United Statesas several analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted in a recent report, which “requires NATO to reassess the implications of Russia’s growing control over Belarus and the capabilities and resources that Russia can leverage against” said powers.
One of the key aspects that analysts highlight is that the country acts not only as an ally of Putin, but also as a fundamental strategic partner in every move the Kremlin makes. In fact, the territory has been used both for the invasion of Ukraine and for launching missiles there.
“Policymakers must begin to plan a future in which Belarus is not only a captive nation, but also an extension of the Russian Federation,” warned the Institute for the Study of War, which has assured that the Kremlin focuses its efforts in three key areas: military, political and economic integration from both countries. “It is more difficult to determine what Moscow will not control in Belarus if Moscow is successful than to list what Moscow will control,” criticized the Washington, DC-based non-profit organization.
Although, as the ISW has highlighted, the country is not yet under Russian control, its advance in this territory has been such that the rest of the powers should begin to take measures, since it represents a threat both to them and to the sovereignty of Belarus itself.
“Russia does not need to achieve additional integration success in Belarus to threaten the West. Russia’s current set of military, political and economic integration achievements in Belarus since 2020 already represents a threat for the West that policymakers should take into account,” the organization concluded.
