Bank profits, TSMC expectations and the withdrawal of Pix supervision are among the topics
US stock futures advance this Thursday (Jan 16, 2025), suggesting that stocks may be on track to add to the gains recorded in the previous session. Investors are bracing for more economic data and bank earnings after sentiment was bolstered by cooler-than-projected numbers on core consumer prices and strong results from major U.S. lenders.
Meanwhile, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co) reported a better-than-expected Q4 profit, thanks to AI-driven demand for its chips. In Brazil, the government goes back and revokes the rule on Pix.
1. US Futures
U.S. stock futures rose, pointing to an extension of the rally on Wall Street in the previous session, which was triggered by a soft core inflation reading and solid earnings from big U.S. banks.
At 7:59 am (Brasília time), the Dow futures contract rose 0.04%, the S&P 500 futures had risen 0.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 0.45%.
All 3 averages rose on Wednesday (Jan 15), recording their largest daily percentage increases since November 6, as a cooler-than-expected measure of core consumer price growth in December reinforced hopes for more cuts in interest rates (Federal Reserve, US Central Bank) this year.
Fed officials noted that although uncertainty surrounds the policies of the new Donald Trump (Republican) administration, the number helped improve the outlook for inflation.
In the wake of the data, the benchmark yield on U.S. Treasury notes — which had risen to multi-month highs in recent days, hurting the attractiveness of stocks — also fell. Strong results from major US lenders also supported sentiment.
Investors will have the opportunity to analyze a series of new US economic data this Thursday (Jan 16), including indicators of retail sales and industrial activity.
Economists expect retail sales to grow 0.6% month over month in December, slowing slightly from the 0.7% increase recorded the previous month. In November, the reading rose more than anticipated as purchases of online items and motor vehicles indicated a boost in the U.S. economy toward the end of 2024.
Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Fed’s monthly factory index is expected to be minus 5.2, an improvement from the previous level of minus 16.4. However, the brand would still be in negative territory, suggesting a contraction in industrial activity. The outlook for the sector, which represents more than 10% of the US economy, has been clouded by a lack of clarity regarding the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory, as well as President-elect Trump’s plans to impose sweeping import tariffs.
Initial jobless claims are also expected to be released weekly, with investors eyeing the outlook for labor demand after a blockbuster employment report last week.
2. Bank profits
On the earnings front, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are expected to be the last major US banks to release their latest quarterly results. The numbers, expected to be revealed before the opening bell on Wall Street, will follow the buoyant returns of several of its peers on Wednesday (Jan 15).
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) posted its biggest annual profit ever, buoyed by markets’ rally in Q4, while Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) posted its best quarterly revenue ever, the final numbers from the Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) beat estimates and Citigroup (NYSE:C) turned a profit. Shares of all these companies closed higher.
Executives at these companies also noted an increase in confidence in the future operating environment, citing expectations that the Trump administration will implement more business-friendly policies. In particular, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told analysts that there was a “general increase in appetite for negotiations”as companies prepare for potentially looser regulations and tax cuts during Trump’s 2nd term in the White House.
3. TSMC Profit
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, also known as TSMC, reported a higher-than-expected fourth-quarter profit on Thursday (Jan 16), thanks to AI-driven demand for its advanced chips.
The world’s largest contract chipmaker forecast a substantial increase in capital spending for 2025, citing an increase in capacity utilization and higher production at its new facilities in the US and Japan.
TSMC’s net profit rose 57% to T$374.68 billion (US$11.60 billion) in the 3 months to December 31, the company said in a statement. The number was higher than the estimates of the Bloomberg of T$369.84 billion.
For Q1 2025, TSMC CFO Wendell Huang forecast revenue between $25 billion and $28 billion, citing some softer seasonal trends in smartphone demand and AI investment.
TSMC is also expected to increase capital spending in the face of greater AI demand in the year, with Huang estimating 2025 capital spending at between $38 billion and $42 billion, up from $29.8 billion in 2024 Around 70% of this amount will be allocated to advanced process technologies, TSMC’s largest source of revenue.
4. Oil
Oil prices fell on Thursday (Jan 16), adding to recent highs, driven by a combination of softer US inflation data, new sanctions on Russian oil and significant reductions in US crude oil inventories. .
At 7:58 am, US oil (WTI) fell 0.33%, to US$78.45, while the Brent contract was trading down 0.46%, to US$81.65 per barrel.
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday (Jan 15), reaching their highest levels since July, as a benign report on US inflation brought expectations of easier monetary policy back into play, potentially boosting economic growth.
Supporting the bullish sentiment, the US Energy Information Administration reported a 2 million barrel draw in oil inventories, indicating a supply squeeze.
5. Rules on Pix
After the fake news and negative repercussions on the topic, the government decided to revoke the measure related to Pix inspection. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) must issue the MP (Provisional Measure) guaranteeing that transactions carried out using this procedure will not be taxed and that the banking secrecy of the modality will be maintained.
The measure, valid since the beginning of this month, expanded the supervision of transactions via Pix that totaled more than R$5,000 for individuals and R$15,000 for legal entities, giving greater control over financial operations.
The objective, according to the Ministry of Finance, was to combat tax evasion, but the measure did not stipulate any tax on Pix. The data would be passed on by financial institutions if there was any indication of irregularity. But, after fake news about the possible taxation of Pix, strong criticism from the opposition and widespread confusion about the rule, the government had to go back and revoke the measure.
With information from .
