A feared result, although widely predicted by the scientific community, the global temperature exceeded for the first time, last year, the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. According to Copernicus, the European Union’s main climate monitoring service, the average temperature in 2024 was 1.6°C above pre-industrial levelsthat is, a jump of 0.1°C compared to 2023.
When it is announced that last year it exceeded 1.5%, this does not mean that the target, adopted by 196 countries (including Brazil) in December 2015, was not met.
This indicates, for nowa specific deviation that may have been caused, for example, by exceptional weather conditions, such as a strong El Niño, in conjunction with greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans.
However, “which we are witnessing in various locations around the world and also in Brazil”, explains professor Cássia Ferreira, coordinator of the Climatology and Environmental Analysis Laboratory at UFJF (Federal University of Juiz de Fora) and the UFJF/Inmet Climatological Station, the CNN Brazil.
Although temporary, exceeding 1.5°C suggests that we are very close to, or partially immersed in, what UN Secretary-General António Guterres called a “climate collapse”.
Immediate consequences of global warming
According to Copernicus, 2024 not only broke the record for the hottest year in history, but also the record for the amount of water in the atmosphere. This is worrying, because water vapor is a classic example of climate feedback where warming ends up positively reinforcing its own existence.
In other words, the hotter the climate gets, the more water the atmosphere retains, and the more water is retained, the greater the warming. This cycle can accelerate climate change beyond what would be caused by carbon dioxide alone. With increased water levels in the atmosphere, intense rainfall events become more severe, as observed in 2024, in regions such as Dubai, eastern Spain and southern Brazil.
Conversely, warmer temperatures increase the evaporation of water from the soil, making land and forests drier. As a result, vegetation becomes more susceptible to fires. The deaths in the USA, which resulted in 24 deaths (at the time of writing this article), are an example that even regions with many resources are vulnerable.
What to expect from climate breakdown in the coming years?
we can expect two opposite scenarios for the future of humanity. In the first, realistically optimistic scenario, we can see 2024 as a positive turning point, if we act quickly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions now.
Unlikely, but not impossible, the theory is supported by the return of the natural La Niña climate pattern, announced on January 9th. This oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon tends to temporarily influence global cooling.
“However, what we are seeing on a local, regional and global scale is not that”, ponders Professor Cássia. “Each year, we have greater outbreaks of forest fires, we are emitting almost twice as much as would be advisable with a goal of minimizing emissions.”
In this gloomy scenario, warns the climatologist, “state governments are still being occupied by people who deny global warming and, therefore, are against mitigating measures”. Based on a scientific article published in 2022 in the journal Science, the UN states that exceeding 1.5 °C could trigger several climate tipping points.
These effects involve “collapses of major ocean circulation systems, abrupt thaw of boreal permafrost, and collapse of tropical coral reef systems.” The impacts, says the international organization, could be “abrupt, irreversible and dangerous for humanity”.
For Cássia Ferreira, even if we “follow the guide”, we can prevent “heating from increasing, but the reversal of the situation will take a few good years”. After the emission of a molecule of carbon dioxide, explains the professor, the gas can remain in the atmosphere for more than 100 years.
Regardless of the political decisions of world leaders, one of these scenarios will become reality. AND, how we will all suffer the consequencesthis future will depend on the global choices we make today.
