China’s population fell for the third year in a row in 2024, with the number of deaths outpacing the increase in births, experts warn the trend will accelerate in the coming years.
The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China fell by 1.39 million, bringing the population from 1.409 billion in 2023 to 1.408 billion in 2024.
This Friday’s data (17) reinforces concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will face difficulties as the number of workers and consumers declines.
Rising costs for elder care and retirement benefits are also likely to create additional strains for already indebted local governments.
The total number of births in China was 9.54 million, up from 9.02 million in 2023, the statistics bureau said. The birth rate increased to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024, up from 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.
The number of deaths was 10.93 million in 2024, in 2023, the number was 11.1 million.
Birth rates in China have been falling for decades as a result of the country’s one-child policy implemented from 1980 to 2015, as well as rapid urbanization.
As in neighboring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese have moved from rural farms to cities, where having children is more expensive.
The high cost of childcare and education, as well as job and employment uncertainty, have also discouraged many young Chinese people from getting married and starting a family.
Gender discrimination and conservative expectations that women take care of the home exacerbate the problem, demographers say.
“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in deep-seated structural reasons: without fundamental structural transformations – from strengthening the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline cannot be reversed.”
Yun Zhou, assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan
A 12.4% increase in marriages in 2023 — many postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic — explains the rebound in births in 2024, demographers said, but the number is expected to fall again in 2025.
Marriages are an important indicator of birth rates in China, where many single women do not have access to child-rearing benefits.
Authorities have announced a series of measures in 2024 to increase the birth rate in China.
In December, they called on colleges and universities to integrate marriage and “love education” into their curricula to emphasize positive views on marriage, love, fertility and family.
In November, the state council or cabinet called on local governments to direct resources to solving China’s population crisis and spreading respect for procreation and marriage “at the right age.”
The number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15 to 49, is expected to fall by more than two-thirds to fewer than 100 million by the end of the century.
Meanwhile, the retirement-age population, aged 60 and over, is expected to increase to more than 400 million by 2035, up from about 280 million people today.
The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences said the pension system will run out of funds by 2035.
About 22% of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, were aged 60 or over in 2024, up from 296.97 million in 2023, the data showed.
Urbanization also increased the number of people living in cities from 10.83 million to 943.3 million. The rural population, in turn, fell to 464.78 million.
