The truce reached on Wednesday between Israel and Hamas to temporarily stop the fighting in Gaza and resuming the exchange of prisoners after 15 months of extreme violence has brought a glimmer of hope to a region exhausted by war. Israelis and Palestinians celebrated the news in the streets without ignoring the many difficulties that await them along the way. The agreement has not resolved the future of Gaza: neither its governability, nor the prospects for its reconstruction nor the degree of cooperation of Israel in the company, on which the viability of a devastated and now uninhabitable territory depends. In itself the high fire agreed does not even guarantee the definitive end of the war. An extreme that will depend largely on the trade-offs between Benjamin Netanyahuthe extremists who support his Government and the future Trump Administration.
Neither the Administration of Joe Bidenwho wanted before his farewell to aim to stop the bleeding that he has fueled for so many months with his weapons and his vetoes to the ceasefire in the Security Council, has dared to throw his bells in the air. “What will be the outcome of all this? I think it’s too early to predict. Even when good things happen, bad things wait around the corner,” the White House National Security Advisor acknowledged on Wednesday. Jake Sullivan. “That happens with all foreign policy, but it’s especially true in the Middle East.”
The ceasefire should be done effective this sundaywhen the first of the 33 Israeli hostages who must regain their freedom during the first phase of the agreement in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. A first phase that also contemplates the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the population centers of Gaza and the humanitarian aid entry for the hungry population of the Strip.
Netanyahu’s doubts
But, for now, everything is still up in the air. Netanyahu seems to have broken out in a cold sweat at the reluctance of some of his Cabinet to stop the war. The Israeli ultranationalist has accused Hamas to renege on parts of the agreement in an attempt to extract “last minute” concessions and has chosen to postpone the vote in the cabinet, although the latest information suggests that it will be voted on this Friday. Part of the discrepancies center on the Palestinian prisoners that they will be released. Initially Israel presented a list of a hundred prisoners with blood crimes who under no circumstances would be released, a list that was later reduced to 65, according to Palestinian sources familiar with the negotiations.
In it are Marwan Barghoutithe political leader most beloved by the Palestinians, or Ahmed Saadat, the leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Hamas has always aspired to have them enter into the final exchange, which would help it present itself as a force that prioritizes national interest over other considerations, despite the enormous miscalculation he made with his October 7 massacre.
Ambiguous wording of the agreement
If the first phase of the agreement goes ahead, the difficult part will begin on the 14th of its initial implementation, when the parties sit down to negotiate its final stages, the most thorny, from the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gazato the definitive ceasefire or the reconstruction plans for the Strip. “To convince the parties to sign, mediators forged an agreement worded with such ambiguity that some of its components remain unresolved, meaning it could easily collapse,” The New York Times said on Thursday.
And that is what part of the Israeli Government wants, but also, apparently, the Trump Administration. Within the first, his Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, He stated this Thursday that he will leave the coalition if the war does not resume “in full force” after the initial break until “we achieve a decisive victory that includes the complete destruction of Hamas”. And that is also what the men called to lead the US Department of Defense and National Security have declared this week in Washington. “I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas,” he said. Pete Hegseththe man chosen by Trump to lead the Pentagon during his confirmation hearings.
Entente between Trump and Netanyahu
At the moment, there is nothing in the agreement that forces Hamas to give up power in Gazaalthough it is foreseeable that it will be a sine qua non condition for Israel to agree to cooperate in its reconstruction, contemplated in the third phase of the entente. Some sources consulted maintain that the Islamists are ready to hand over control of Gaza as long as they are allowed to intervene from the rear in their important decisions. Be to the Palestinian National Authority of Mahmoud Abbas or a government of notables, made up of personalities and technocrats from Gaza.
The question is whether Israel could accept such a formula. ‘The Times of Israel’ publishes that Trump’s team would have accepted Netanyahu’s positions to definitively close the war: the complete dismantling of the Hamas Government, the demilitarization of Gaza and the return of all Israeli hostages. As part of a larger agreement, the future White House would also have committed to facilitating Israel’s rearmament, cooperating with Tel Aviv on a strategy that forces Iran to abandon its supposed nuclear aspirations and negotiate the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia.
But it might not end there. Palestinian government sources consulted by this newspaper fear that Trump is preparing to facilitate the annexation of part of the occupied West Bank. A maneuver that would probably serve Netanyahu to buy the permanence of his government from the settlers, the same forces that now threaten to cause his fall if he does not resume his brutal military campaign in Gaza after the initial break of 42 days that contemplates this ceasefire.
Subscribe to continue reading
