The official Gaza ceasefire agreement that is making headlines hides the two hidden agreements on which it is built. All three have the Trump stamp.
The first, formal, marks defeats for and for Hamas. Israel agrees to partially withdraw its forces without destroying Hamas, the objective declared by the Netanyahu government, and pays a high price with the release of hundreds of valuable Palestinian prisoners. Hamas, degraded to the status of a guerrilla insurgency, is regionally isolated after the fall of the Syrian dictatorship, the military defeat of Hezbollah and the humiliation of Iran.
From this agreement, two victors emerge. Palestinians in Gaza find a breather amid the colossal humanitarian tragedy that has lasted 15 months. Trump appears as a sponsor of peace, even before his inauguration. But war is on the cards for the underground agreements.
The second agreement is between Netanyahu and the supremacist ministers who keep his government afloat. Smotrich and Ben Gvir obtained promises from the Prime Minister to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in addition, to resume the offensive in Gaza after phase 1 of the ceasefire.
The two supremacists voted against the agreement, but they will not overthrow the government. Instead, they will make empty gestures aimed at their political base — and, above all, they will offer informal promises extracted from Netanyahu. Their ultimate goal is the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the Israeli recolonization of Palestinian territory.
The third agreement is between Netanyahu and Trump. Basically, it is a commitment to the total defeat of Hamas — that is, to lay down their weapons and exile their fighters or physically exterminate them.
The signs are in public statements on both sides.
Israeli side. A “senior official”, a password used by Netanyahu to say what he cannot say, issued a statement with the following passage: if, in phase 2 negotiations, “Hamas does not agree to Israel’s demands for an end to hostilities ( war aims), Israel will remain in place until further notice.” Translation: Israel will resume the offensive if it does not obtain the complete surrender of Hamas.
US side. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s Pentagon nominee, stated the following at his Senate confirmation hearing: “I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas.” Almost simultaneously, Mike Waltz, the new National Security Advisor, clarified: Hamas “must be destroyed to the point where it can no longer rebuild itself.” He was even more explicit in an interview with Fox News. When the ceasefire was announced by Biden, he asked for the attention of the “people of Israel”: “if they need to go back inside, we will be with them.”
Trump never criticized Israel for the lack of a political plan for the “day after”. This is the impotent criticism maintained by Biden and Blinken. From Trump’s point of view, Israel’s mistake was to wage a slow war that turned into a public relations disaster. The new occupant of the White House is betting on the complete surrender of Hamas — and, failing that, a decisive stage of military actions.
By signing the ceasefire, Netanyahu assumes the risk of the fall of his government. But he sees an exit door with Trump’s name painted on it.
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